Double Dutch, 10th June 2014
Not the best of Mondays for us, as the best I could muster was a pair of runner-up finishes.
Insaany was backed in to 11/8 in race 1 and was very disappointing, finishing last of the five runners, whilst Amaze also attracted lots of support (2/1 from 5/1), but could only get to within a length and three-quarters of San Cassiano who I thought might struggle under the revised terms.
Commissar was withdrawn from race 2, taking my E/W punt with him and leaving us with just Incendo to salvage a bit of pride for me. He was slow away, but made steady headway and stayed on well. He just couldn’t quite get to the shirt-priced favourite and ultimately went down by a neck.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Amaze: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/1)
Insaany: u/p at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Incendo: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Commissar: non-runner (adv 6/1)
The Exacta paid £11.20 for this one.
Results to date:
252 winning selections from 909 = 27.72%
80 winning bets in 237 days = 33.76%
P/L : +33.63pts (+7.13% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Hoping for better on Tuesday with these…
Aiyana runs here for Hughie Morrison, who is in decent nick of late (8/39 in the last two months) and the presence of Richard Hughes in the saddle for the first time is a positive sign, especially with his excellent record at this track (36/126 in the last 3 years).
Aiyana looked progressive over the winter on the A/W stepping up in trip, proving that she stays. I’m happy to ignore her disappointing run last time out, when she was beaten by 14 lengths into 4th of 6 at Southwell eight weeks ago. But that came after a five month absence and the race was too quick for her over a shorter trip.
She’ll come on for the run and the step back up in trip will help, as well as carrying bottom weight: all of which make her the most likely to succeed here at 9/4 BOG.
Munsarim is of interest here, too, stepping up in trip beyond 1m5f for the first time, but the way he has run here in the past suggests he’ll stay the extra 2.5f here. He loves it here at Lingfield too, having won 5 times here from 14 efforts and he’s 11432 on his last 5 visits. He’s currently priced at 7/1 BOG with PP, which looks a bit long to me and I’ll probably take a small E/W side bet here too.
On The Bridge has a decent enough record at 7 wins from 23, but those figures look even better when you see that he’s actually 7/14 for current trainer Jeremy Scott, so he clearly has ability. he’s certainly better than the bare form of 467 in his last three outings would suggest, as they were at Cheltenham and Aintree at much higher level than today’s Class 3, where his record is very good at 2 wins and 2 places from 4 starts. he loves it here at Worcester, winning 3 from 6 (1 over C&D).
He finished 6th in the Pertemps final (Listed) at Cheltenham and was only beaten by just over three lengths. he ran off the same mark as he does today and that Cheltenham race has produced several winners at a higher grade than today. A similar level of performance here could well be enough at an attractive-looking 11/2 BOG.
The one to beat, however, is likely to be Bob Keown, who might yet still be ahead of the handicapper despite another 6lb rise in the weights. He has progressed really nicely since sent into handicap company six months ago, producing a string of consistently good performances (361232) and was only touched off by a neck in a decent quality, big-field handicap at Punchestown six weeks ago. He hasn’t run at this 2m7f trip before, but did win his only effort at 2m 7.5f at Exeter in March.
AP McCoy takes the ride here looking to improve on his already excellent record for trainer Rebecca Curtis which has seen him win on 12 of the 32 horses he has ridden for her here at Worcester in the last 5yrs and this looks a weaker contest for Bob Keown than he has faced of late, so he looks a good bet at 9/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Aiyana / Bob Keown @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : SkyBet & Coral)
Aiyana / On The Bridge @ 20.13/1 (9/4 & 11/2 : Stan James)
Munsarim / Bob Keown @ 25/1 (7/1 & 9/4 : PP)
Munsarim / On The Bridge @ 47.75/1 (13/2 & 11/2 : Stan James, Betfred & Hills)