Stat of the Day, 11th June 2014
There were very few positives to be taken from Hidden Gold’s run at Salisbury on Tuesday, if any at all.
She did, at least, start well and led after 2 furlongs and that was as good as it got, I’m afraid. The Sporting Life’s comment summed up a pretty disappointing run succinctly…“Close up until switched left after 2f soon towards rear, pushed along 6f out, ridden 4f out, never a factor…” There’s very little to argue with or to add to that statement and to add insult to injury, we didn’t even beat the market as she drifted out half a point to an SP of 7/2.
We’re off to the seaside next for a crack at the…
And a handicap debut for a half-sister to recent Irish group 3 winner Purr Along. Today will be just Katawi’s fourth run and her first in a handicap as she drops down to Class 6 level for the first time. She has two modest outings for Peter Chapple-Hyam, before a switch to Chris Wall over the winter.
She returned to action to make her yard debut at Lingfield when beaten into 4th place by 4 lengths behind the useful Penny Drops. She finished within 2 lengths of the runner-up, who has since gone on to win at Salisbury and has plenty of scope for further improvement dropping down in class and making her handicap debut.
Over the last 6 years, Chris Wall has given 70 horses a first handicap run in the lower grades (classes 4 to 6) and has recorded a dozen victories (17.1% SR) from them. These runners have generated level stakes profits of 67.1% or 95.9% of stakes and his record at this time of year (May/June particularly) is good with a 7/34 (20.6% SR) record producing 51.73pts (+152.1% ROI)
From the original 70 debutants, the record at odds of below 12/1 reads 11 wins from 47 (23.4% SR) for 60.9pts (+129.5% ROI) with the sub-8/1 runners winning 8 of their 37 (21.6% SR) races for 19.9pts (+53.8% ROI) profit.
Over the last six years, Chris has also dropped 165 runners down in class in handicap contests resulting in 31 winners for an 18.8% strike rate yielding 136.3pts (+82.6% ROI) profit. The record at Class 6, incidentally, is 14/80 (17.5% SR) for 58pts (+72.5% ROI)
From the original 165 runners dropping in class, 49 ran on the A/W, leaving us with a flat record of 22 wins from 116 races (19% SR), which in turn has produced 115.1pts (+99.2% ROI) profits, from which the record at Class 6 reads 7/38 (18.4% SR) for 23.8pts (+57.8% ROI)
This obviously includes all runners at all odds. If, however, we looked specifically at those priced between 5/2 and 12/1, we have 18 winners from 86 for a 20.9% strike rate yielding 83pts (+96.5% ROI) and with a 7/1 odds cap 11 winners from 47 (23.4% SR) gave rise to 27.2pts (+57.8% ROI) profit.
Stepping into handicap company for the first time is always a bit of an unknown quantity, but Katawi looks well treated off an opening mark of 60 and the drop in class might well prove the key to getting her off the mark in what is arguably the weakest race she has encountered so far.
When I wrote this (10.30pm), only PP & Bet365 had a book open on the race, with the latter offering the best price, so today’s call is a 1pt win bet on Katawi at 5/1 BOG with Bet365, but you might want to wait until the full market forms. Either way, the easiest route to all the bookies’ prices, is to simply…
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