Stat of the Day, 12th June 2014
Close, but not close enough at Yarmouth on Wednesday, as Katawi was just held off by a neck. She seemed to be travelling the stronger of the two main protagonists, with opposing jockey Martin Dwyer hard at work from a fair way out.
Our jockey chose to bide his time for an effort, possibly in the hope that the favourite would burn himself out, but Royal brave responded well to the pressure and just about hung on to beat our 4/1 hope, which had been backed in form our advised 5/1 overnight odds.
God’s own country, the North West, is our next port of call for some evening entertainment in the shape of the…
Where I’ve just taken a safety-first 15/2 E/W bet (paying 4 places)with BetVictor about Eric Alston’s, bottom weighted, 4 yr old sprinter Little Eli in this 5f, Class 4 handicap.
Little Eli comes here on the back of a narrow win at Musselburgh last time out, a little over seven weeks ago, when he made all to score by a neck holding off Roy’s Legacy who has since won himself. Little Eli’s effort last time was all the more impressive for not having had a run for over 7 months, prior to going to Musselburgh.
He is trained by Eric Alston, who doesn’t send too many runners to Haydock, in fact, he has only had 55 runners at 20/1 or shorter here in the last seven years. 13 of the 55 (23.6% SR) have gone on to win, with the resultant 21.5pts profit equating to a 39.1% return on stakes.
He has called upon the talents of rising star Jason Hart once again to take the ride, just as he dis at Musselburgh last time out and it is expected that Eric will be looking to improve upon his record with 3lb claimer jockeys, as he has done in the past.
Over the last five years, Eric’s record with a 3lb claim in handicap contests is 18/77 (23.4% SR) for 40.1pts (+52.1% ROI) with horses sent off at 12/1 or shorter and in the last two years that record has improved to 15/58 (25.9% SR) for 37.7pts (+64.9% ROI), helped quite a bit by Jason hart himself whose record from these runners is 9/41 (21.95% SR) for 20.34pts (+49.6% ROI) profit.
Jason Hart is one of the leading jockeys with a 3lb claim and has an overall record of 43 wins from 290 rides with his claim when sent off at odds of 20/1 or shorter. This 14.8% strike rate has, so far, yielded 115.6pts for an ROI of 39.9%. From these runners, 13/58 (22.4% SR) for 50.8pts (+87.6% ROI) was achieved on Eric Alston’s horses.
Jason is riding at Nottingham in the afternoon, before making the journey to Haydock for just this one ride and in the past when he has only has one ride at a track he has a record of 24 wins from 221 rides (10.9% SR) for 52.5pts (+23.7% ROI) profit, often ensuring it’s not a wasted journey!
Little Eli is, coincidentally, Eric’s only runner of the day and when he has only had one runner out over the last three years, he had managed to saddle up 27 winners from 135 runners priced at 20/1 or shorter, a nice round 20% strike rate for 100.5pts profit and an ROI of 74.4%. Jason Hart has ridden 44 of Eric’s sole runners, winning on 13 occasions (29.6% SR) and generating 82.5pts (+187.4% ROI) profit in the process.
Jason won aboard Little Eli last time out and that was without his claim in an apprentices handicap. The horse has been penalised tot he tune of 5lbs, but Jason’s claim negates 60% of that and with the horse expected to come on for having had a recent run, there’s a good chance he can win his fourth race in eight starts.
Little Eli is, as stated at the top of the piece, currently available at 15/2 BOG. Both BetVictor & PP are offering this price, but BetVictor are paying four places at present. I’ve been rattling the crossbar of late and I’ve a feeling that this one will shorten in price later, so it’s an unusual safety-first approach today and a 0.5pts E/W bet on Little Eli at 15/2 BOG with BetVictor.
You can, of course, follow my bet, or you can go “all-in” with your preferred bookie, whose prices can be seen when you…
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