Stat of the Day, 13th June 2014
Even in defeat, we generally get a good run for our money with the SotD selections, but yesterday’s pick Little Eli was very disappointing, finishing back in 9th of the 12 runners who eventually took part.
He got out well and led with less than 2f to travel and still looked to have a chance of at least a place as they reached the furlong pole, but as others pushed on, he seemed to go into reverse, eventually finishing just over 8 lengths of the pace and just 3.5 lengths in front of the last horse home.
Days like these are thankfully few and far between, but I find them frustrating nonetheless and Friday looks a tricky day to launch a recovery mission, but we might just have something in the…
Where Luca Cumani steps Connecticut up in trip and up in class for his handicap debut off the back of a win in a maiden Newbury four weeks ago in what was only his second outing.
In the last six years, Luca’s record with handicap debutants on turf is 36 winners from 144 (25% SR) for 65.3pts (+45.3% ROI) profit, and 21/75 (28% SR) for 32.8pts (+43.7% ROI) in the last three seasons.
That’s obviously based on all his runners, so we need to drill down further to ensure the numbers aren’t skewed by a couple of freak results and we see the following results:
Under 10/1 in the last six years: 35/123 (28.5% SR) for 71pts (+57.7% ROI)
Under 10/1 in the last three years: 20/64 (31.25% SR) for 28.6pts (+44.6% ROI)
Under 6/1 in the last six years: 28/91 (30.8% SR) for 27pts (+29.7% ROI)
Under 6/1 in the last three years: 18/50 (36% SR) for 23.1pts (+46.1% ROI)
This tells us that the stats are robust and profitable at all levels and from the 144 runners we started with, 108 were stepping up in trip with 28 (25.9% SR) of them going on to win, producing level stakes profits of 56.9pts (+52.7% ROI). These figures are slightly higher than those achieved by the horses not stepping up in trip, but it is admittedly a marginal increase.
Of those stepping up in trip, there was 17 winners from 47 runners priced below 5/1 for a strike rate of 36.2% and profits of 19.8pts (+42% ROI). In the last three years there were 9 winners from 25 (36% SR) for 9.85pts (+39.4% ROI).
Incidentally, those stepping up in trip and class at the same time for their handicap debut in the last three years have won 6 of 16 races (37.5% SR) for 7.5pts (+46.8% ROI) profit.
As I said earlier, Connecticut was a winner last time out, in a maiden at Newbury, which can be taken as another pointer today.
In the last four seasons, horses coming to York on the back of a win in a maiden at Newbury last time out have won 5 times from 11 attempts for 6.6pts (+60% ROI profit). All five winners came from the seven runners priced at 5/1 or shorter.
There’s enough there to grab my interest and there’s just about enough juice in the price to make it worth our while for a 1pt win bet on Connecticut at a widely available 9/4 BOG, I’ve chosen to use Stan James today, but you can take your pick of the bookies after you…
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