Stat of the Day, 14th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th June 2014

Friday’s battling run from Connecticut was just the tonic I needed after Thursday’s poor show, as our selection toughed it out to just get his nose in front after a bit of a ding-dong battle in the final furlong.

In a very tight finish, Andrea Atzeni just got our horse home by a head, with the third placed horse just a neck further back. I’d advised a 9/4 BOG bet, which is pretty much as low as I’m comfortable with for SotD selections, but I did feel that even as such low odds, there was still bit of juice/value in the price.

As it was, he was sent off as the 6/4 favourite, meaning we smashed the bookies with a 50% bigger payout than SP, but watching our horse battle against the 28/1 outsider of the nine runners, you wouldn’t have thought the gulf in market opinion was that big.

Last selection of the week now and we’re heading up the A1 from York for the…

3.20 Hexham:

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Where Brian Hughes will be aiming to steer Dianne Sayers’ Discoverie to a first win at the fifteenth attempt in this 16.5f, Class 5 Handicap Chase.

The first thing we should consider here is trainer Dianne Sayer’s excellent record in NH handicap races, where backing her horses blindly over the last few years has been very profitable. In fact, since the start of 2011, she has had 527 such runners: a pretty substantial sample size to work from. 72 of the 527 (13.7% SR) have won, generating huge level stakes profits of 196.5pts, or 37.3% ROI.

With runners priced 20/1 or lower, the figures are 70/431 (16.2% SR) for 185.8pts (+43.1% ROI) with her sub-10/1 runners winning 58 of 296 (19.6% SR) races for 77.7pts (+26.2% ROI) profit.  These numbers make Dianne well worth following.

She doesn’t, however, send many runners up here to Hexham, just 30 in the last 600 days to be precise. 23 of these 30 runners have been sent off below 16/1 and with five of them winning, a healthy 21.7% strike rate has been achieved with the resultant 14.7pts profit being worth almost 64p for every pound invested. 35% of these runners have been placed, opening the door for steady E/W returns.

As I said at the top of the piece, Brian Hughes is in the saddle today and he has been in great form of late, riding six winners from 19 in the last fortnight and 5/14 in the last week. He also has a great record here at Hexham with 34 winners from 160 (21.25%SR) over the last four years or so. The 35.1pt profit from those rides produces an ROI of almost 22% and the numbers can be further analysed as follows:

Handicap Races: 18/87 (20.7% SR) for 48.12pts (+55.3% ROI)
Chase Contests: 19/64 (29.7% SR) for 49.51pts (+77.4% ROI)
Handicap Chases: 13/51 (25.5% SR) for 42.3pts (+82.9% ROI)
and Handicap Chases on horses priced below 18/1: 13/44 (29.5% SR) for 49.3pts (+112.0% ROI)

The stats all stack up nicely and point to a worthwhile bet, but what’s the fly in the ointment?

Oh yes, it’s Discoverie‘s 0/14 career record, isn’t it? Of course it is, but before you start to question my sanity (again! 😀 ) let’s look at his string of defeats and more pertinently a recent upturn in form. He was 0/9 and looking decidedly average aside from one decent run when second over hurdles at Kelso under today’s jockey Brian Hughes, who was riding him for the first time and steered him to a runner-up finish, easily the best of his eight starts up to that point. (Brian’s record on the horse reads 2342)

Anyway, one more poor hurdles run and the trainer decided that was enough, so seven months ago, he was switched to chasing and although he still hasn’t won, his five runs since the switch have seen finishes of 32342 and he seems to run well in close proximity to his last outing, which is just as well as his last outing was only six days ago!

Mind you, this isn’t a new tactic from Dianne Sayer, she seems to be able to get horses to perform again very soon after their last outing and since the start of 2011, she has sent out 36 horses in handicap races between 3 and 6 days after their last run. 11 of the 36 (30.6% SR) have won, producing 12.1pts levels takes profits (+33.5% ROI) with a record of 11/32 (34.4% SR) for 16.1pts (+50.2% ROI) with those sent off at 12/1 or shorter.

The layers of stats, allied to Discoverie‘s recent form suggests that he’ll be there or thereabouts again today. I’m pretty sure he’ll win a race or two, but whether today is the day, we’ll have to wait and see. A quick look at the early markets suggest there’s not a lot of optimism about his cause, but I see no reason why he can’t finish towards the head of this nine-runner field. There are some decent odds available for him at the moment, so today’s play is a safety-first approach with a 0.5pts E/W bet on Discoverie at a decent-looking 10/1 BOG with PP.

At those kind of odds, even a place will generate a 50% profit on the day and there could be more, if he drifts, as you’ll see for yourself, if you just…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.20 Hexham

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