Stat of the Day, 16th June 2014
Discoverie certainly didn’t look like a 10/1 shot on Saturday and gave a creditable performance in finishing fourth, just a place away from an E/W payout for us.
Mind you, he certainly didn’t look like a 4/1 horse that the market decided he was, meaning that once again we’d got the value, if he could get home. As it was, it became another not quite for us in a week that also saw us have tow horses narrowly beaten at decent prices (6/1 & 5/1, both beaten by a neck)
We stay is the North today, but we leave Hexham and head West for the…
Where I’m looking at trainer Mark Johnston.
Mark has an excellent record here at Carlisle, having saddled up 34 winners from 160 runners (21.25% SR) for 86.42pts (+54% RO) in the process. He’s 32/134 for 54.7pts with horses priced at 12/1 or shorter here and 21/59 for 19.5pts at 4/1 and under, which is where we might end up today!
Mark has three runners here at Carlisle and although both Arabian Bride (2.15 race) and Ben Bulben Pace (5.15 race) are likely to have decent chances, they’re both unraced and don’t yet lend themselves to much statistical analysis!
The third runner and our pick today is, Branston de Soto, who will be ridden by Joe Fanning (as will the other two Johnston runners I mentioned). Joe has a great record on Mark’s horses, as most people know, but you might not realise that he has a 15/70 (21.4% SR) on them here at Carlisle, producing level stakes profits of 33.6 pts or 48% of stakes.
On the Johnston horses at 14/1 or shorter, Joe has ridden 15 winners from 64 (23.4% SR) for 39.6pts (61.9% ROI) and has a 1-in-3 strike rate when sent off at 4/1 or shorter (8 from 24), for more modest, but still useful, profits of 5.95pts (+24.8% ROI).
Branston de Soto runs here off the back of a break of 109 days, which falls within Mark Johnston’s optimum rest period for his horses. Since the start of the 2011 season, his record with horses having rested for three to five months is 8 winners from 36, a 22.2% strike rate yielding 44.3pts (123.2% ROI) profit, with the bulk of the runners (and profits!) falling inside the 2/1 to 12/1 odds parameters, where the record is 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 35.9pts (+170.8% ROI) profit.
Looking at Branston de Soto‘s record on paper, you’d not want to back him after runs of 50255 to date and if if look at the 0 effort allied to the last two runs, he has only beaten 2 of 22 rivals in those races. But (there’s always a but!), all of those races were in unsuitable conditions as far as I can see. His best run came when second over 8.5f at Nottingham and that was his longest race to date. He’s by Hernando, whose offspring perform best at 10f and beyond and today represents a step up in trip of 3f to 11.5f from that Nottingham run and is 2.5f than his last run..
He ran off a mark of 67 in the race after his runner-up finish, but has now been eased to a more workable 62 and his trainer’s record with horses stepping up in trip give more confidence to the selection.
In the last six seasons, Mark Johnston has asked 262 of his 3 yr olds to step up in trip by two furlongs or more in a flat handicap on the back of an unplaced run last time out. The trick has worked immediately for 38 (14.5% SR) of them and has produced level stakes profits of 7.12pts, an ROI of 27.2%. from this, we can look at those sent off at 8/1 or shorter and see that the record improves greatly to 32/133 (24.1% SR) for 64.5pts (+48.5% ROI), suggesting that any market confidence could be a good sign here.
Incidentally from that 32/133 stat just above, 12 winners from 31 runners (38.7% SR) were winners on the back of a break of over two months, yielding another 46.7pts (+15.7% ROI).
The money has been coming for Branston de Soto, who was a 5/1 chance overnight and has been cut from 9/2 to 4/1 BOG whilst I was typing (must type quicker! 😀 ), but I still think it’s a decent selection at that price. So, the call today is a 1pt win bet on Branston de Soto at 4/1 BOG with Ladbrokes. For all the other bookies’ prices, please…
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