Stat of the Day, 17th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th June 2014

The Johnston/Fanning partnership left Cumbria empty-handed yesterday as all three runners were defeated in a rare off day for the duo.

This, of course, meant that we also backed a loser in the shape of Branston de Soto, who looked to have a decent chance when switched inside with two furlongs to go. As it was, two other horses got first run and were pulling clear before our horse had got into top gear and although he picked up some momentum and stayed on well, a 6.5 lengths defeat in fourth place was the outcome.

It has been a tough month so far and we’re running at a slight loss, but I’ve still a dozen more opportunities in June to rectify that situation, starting with today’s…

4.45 Thirsk:

And an 11/4 BOG wager on Luca Cumani’s Semeen.

I found it interesting to see this horse being sent up to Thirsk today, as it’s a bit of a rare foray for any Cumani horses to appear at Thirsk: just 23 have run here in the last 10 years!

I’m not sure why Luca doesn’t come here more often, as he has had six winners (26.1% SR) from those 23 runners and whilst 2.41pts profit represents a lower ROI at 10.5% than we usually work with for SotD, it’s still better than the banks are offering! From the 23 runners, all six winners came from the 20 sent off below 8/1, for a 30% strike rate and an ROI of 27.1% via the 5.41pts profit.

And from the original 23, the record in handicaps is 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 7.54pts (+58% ROI) with 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 8.54pts (+71.2% ROI) in handicaps and sent off below 8/1.

Since Team Cumani are rarely represented here at Thirsk, you’ll not be surprised to learn that Semeen is the yard’s only runner here today. But he’s also the yard’s only runner anywhere today and in the past five years, they have done rather well on those days where they’ve only had one runner.

Since the start of the 2010 season, their record when a solitary flat handicapper was the only runner of the day, that horse has won 24 of 86 (27.9% SR) races for level stakes profits of 26.4pts, or 30.7% of stakes. When they attract market attention and run at odds of between Evens and 4/1, the record is 19/44 (43.2% SR) for 22.3pts (+50.6% ROI) profit.

Semeen was in cracking form last season, winning three of his four races, including 2/3 over today’s 1m4f trip. He showed some promise on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot just over five weeks ago, when beaten into fourth place, having weakened late on after coming off the back of a 41-week absence from the track. It was understandable that he might struggle that day, but having had that run and now encountering more favourable good ground (G to S last time), further improvement can be expected.

He’s 1314 over today’s trip and his stamina is no surprise/fluke either, as he’s by Dubawi, whose progeny tend to stay and stay. In fact over the last five seasons, horses by Dubawi have won 69 of 271 races at trips of 1m2f to 2m, when sent off in the Evens to 12/1 odds range. This 25.5% strike rate has so far produced 214.5pts profit for a yield of 79.2%. Of those 271 runners, 77 were sent off between Evens and 4/1, with 34 of the 77 (44.2% SR) going on to win, generating 36.9pts (+47.9% ROI) in the process.

I’m confident that Semeen will come on for that latest run and that trip/going condition etc won’t be an issue either. The booking of jockey Luke Morris is both interesting and positive in my mind, as Luke is another who rarely comes to Thirsk. He has only ridden here 30 times in eight years, but in that time he is 5/20 for 11.93pts in handicap contests at all odds and 5/12 in handicaps at 7/1 or shorter for 19.93pts profit.

We’re not going to break the bank today, but I think that a 1pt win bet on Semeen at 11/4 BOG with Stan James has not only got some value to it, but should be paying us out later. The next best price on offer is the generally available 5/2 BOG, as you’ll see if you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.45 Thirsk

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Here is today’s racecard.