Double Dutch, 18th June 2014
Yesterday’s odds on double didn’t exactly start bailing water from the listing ship Double Dutch, but it did at least plug most of the hole through which profits have recently been leaking.
The bottom line was a loss of 0.16 points, as we were unable to get either a drift or one of our longer prices to win. We’ll try again today, dodging the most difficult of the five Royal Ascot cards.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Toronado: won at 4/5 (adv 10/11)
Verrazano: 2nd at 6/1 (adv 9/2)
Kingman: won at 8/11 (adv Evs)
Night Of Thunder: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
258 winning selections from 933 = 27.66%
81 winning bets in 244 days = 33.2%
P/L : +21.47pts (+4.4% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A small field handicap chase, and a race in which I respect the favourite but like the second choice. As such I’m happy to couple them for DD purposes, with The Magic Bishop being the respected jolly. He’s found winning hard enough, truth be told, but was a head second in a higher class race than this under similar conditions last time. A repeat of that would probably see him win, but I do have a slight reservation about his appetite for a scrap (13 places and just four wins since 2009).
The one I quite like is High Ron, a winner here two starts back under today’s exact conditions. Stepped up in class just eight days later, and on softer ground, he failed to fire last time out. He’s been given a month off since then, and returns to a going / distance / class combo where his form reads 11.
The one slight niggle is that, in a largely paceless race, both our selections tend to be nearer the back than the front. They won’t want to be too far out of their ground here.
It’s a quickfire double, with the likelihood that they’ll only just be crossing the line for leg one as leg two begins. This looks a solid chance for one of the joint favourites to oblige, for different reasons.
Remember Rocky is on a hat-trick, and still racing in Class 6. In other words, although he’s gone up eight pounds in the handicap, he’s still racing against slow horses. Jockey Megan Carberry has been a part of the difference, the winning streak coinciding with her getting the leg up and, under identical conditions to their head victory here three weeks ago, the triple has every chance of landing.
If it’s not to be for Megan and Rocky, the most likely party pooper is Vosne Romanee. This fellow, a three year old racing against his elders, has been tried over a variety of trips and ground, and the combination of good turf and nine and a bit furlongs looks just about spot on. Because of the time of year, and the fact VR is a 3yo, he gets a lumpy eleven pounds from his rivals.
Trainer Keith Dalgleish used to ride for Mark Johnston, and Johnston is the master of exploiting the weight for age system in the early part of the season. Dalgleish will have been taking notes, and could strike here. Make a note of Mount Cheiron, another three year old in the field, and one that could well appreciate the quarter mile step up in distance. If he does, he’ll make the frame.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
The Magic Bishop / Remember Rocky @ 7.75/1 (6/4 & 5/2 : Skybet)
The Magic Bishop / Vosne Romanee @ 8.38/1 (6/4 & 11/4 : Skybet)
High Ron / Remember Rocky @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Hills)
High Ron / Vosne Romanee @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4: Hills)