Stat of the Day, 18th June 2014
When you’re hot, you’re hot and when you’re not, you’re just not! And I’m somewhere between chilly and cold at present and struggling for a bit of form, if truth be told, after another defeat at tea-time on Tuesday.
Semeen ran no sort of race really, a little bit of an effort 2f from home didn’t last long and he soon faded from contention labouring under top weight. We did manage to beat the book, taking 5/2 about a 2/1 favourite, but that’s as good as it got.
No time/need for despondency, though, as Wednesday brings us another opportunity to set the ship straight again via the…
Where a 5 yr old mare, making her debut for her new trainer, on the back of a career record of just one placed finish from 12 starts, might not seem the choice of a sane man! But there are some pointers to her future success.
The mare in question is Terntheothercheek, who makes her first start for Warren Greatrex today and will be ridden by Gavin Sheehan with both jockey and trainer in excellent form.
Warren Greatrex has saddled up 17 winners from 32 runners (53.1% SR) in the last two months with a total of 23 (71.9% SR) of those horses making the frame. And in the last week alone, he has had 7 winners and a place from his 10 runners.
His recent record here at Uttoxeter, albeit from a small sample size, is decent at 3 wins and a place from 8 over the last two years with the 37.5% strike rate producing 11.26pts profit for an ROI of 140.8%. His hurdlers have contributed 2 wins and a place from 4 attempts.
Gavin Sheehan is riding as well as he has ever done at present and has a 10/22 record in the last four weeks alone and his career figures here at Uttoxeter are good too, with 8 winners from 36 (22.2% SR) generating 20.44pts (+56.8% ROI) profit, from which he is 7/27 over the Uttoxeter hurdles course with that 25.9% strike rate bringing home 22pts (+81.5% ROI) profits to date.
When Gavin rides for Warren, it invariably leads to success and when they have teamed up in the past, they have won 31 of 115 (27% SR) races for 58pts (+50.4% ROI) profit. Gavin is able to use his 3lb claim here today and when he has been able to do that, his record on the Greatrex string is 17/79 (21.5% SR) for 48.6pts (+61.5% ROI).
It’s fair to say that they do best in bumper events, but their record together over hurdles isn’t shabby by any means at all with 16 wins from 69 (23.2% SR) for 23pts (33.33% ROI) profit, with a better profit achieved when Gavin claims his 3lb allowance with 10 winners from 47 (21.3% SR) producing 28.9pts (+61.6% ROI) so far.
Warren has just the one runner making the 250-mile round trip from base today and that’s the mare in question, Terntheothercheek, who races for this yard for the very first time. Not only are jockey, trainer & jockey/trainer all in good form, they have a great record with horses running for them for the very first time too.
The yard’s record with debutants is 23 winners from 70 (32.9% SR) for 83.2pts (+118.8% ROI) with 39 of them (55.7%) making the frame. Gavin Sheehan’s contribution amongst those 70 runners is 11 wins from 20 (55% SR) for 19.95pts (+89.8% ROI) with a huge 65% of them making the frame.
This year alone, Warren Greatrex’s “new” runners have an amazing 11/14 (78.6% SR) record giving the yard’s backers a very handsome profit of 21.5pts, or 153.4% of stakes with Gavin riding 10 winners from 12 (83.33%SR) for 20.75pts (+172.9% ROI).
And finally… not only is this Terntheothercheek‘s frst start for her new trainer, she wears a tongue tie for the first time and the yard is 4/14 (28.6% SR) over the last couple of years with horses wearing the tie for the first time and with another 4 making the frame, a decent 57.1% place strike rate has been achieved.
On paper, she doesn’t look to have much chance, but her best runs to date have been on decent ground and around this trip and has gone tot he right yard for resurrecting her career as she drops into a seller for the first time.
She’s not the best horse I’ve ever selected, but I think she has scope for improvement for a new handler and she carries no weight in a poor-looking race. The bookies don’t fancy and we can get fairly long odds on her winning for the first time, and there’s a strong case for an E/W bet here.
I’ve decided to take the more prudent approach with such a high priced selection, so the call is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Terntheothercheek at 12/1 BOG with Hills. Other firms are available, so why not…
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