Stat of the Day, 19th June 2014
Wednesday’s contentious debate over the pricing of my selection was rendered immaterial, as Terntheothercheek failed to make the frame. She ran in patches and Gavin Sheehan handled her really well, getting her really fired up to stay on well at the finish.
She was closing in on the leaders with every stride and eventually finished third, just a head outside the places. Another couple of yards and I’d have seen a reasonable return from my 12/1 E/W bet and dragged myself off the cold list.
3/1 was the SP, so we easily beat the book, whatever price you ended up taking and the three length defeat was easily the horse’s best run to date. Don’t be surprised if she runs again fairly soon over a longer trip and improves for this outing.
Thursday’s selection runs in the Welsh twilight and more specifically, the…
Where Nigel Hawke’s Sedgemoor Express is currently priced up at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor for his bid to land a second win in seven days.
Nigel Hawke isn’t one of the big name trainers with a huge string of horses at his disposal, but he’s very good at getting the best of the ones he does have in his care. He’s also another of those trainers who the market haven’t quite yet got the handle on and is still profitable to back blindly in handicap races.
I’m not too keen on blind backing when it gets to 12/1 and beyond as there can be long losing runs, so I tend to focus more towards the sharper end of affairs. And Nigel’s record over the last four years with his handicappers priced below 12/1 is 28 winners from just 118 runners, a 23.7% strike rate that has already generated 83.9pts (+71.12% ROI) profit, meaning you should keep an eye out for his runners.
Nigel has just the one entrant today and that’s the aforementioned Sedgemoor Express, who has won two and made the frame in two more of his last seven attempts over hurdles, including a third place at Fontwell on his last start over hurdles prior to today. He stayed on well that day, despite not having had a run for almost seven months, but the handicapper saw enough to raise him 3lbs to a mark of 110.
He then ran off that mark of 110 18 days later over today’s 2m4f trip for his chasing debut, that was at Uttoxeter a week ago and he managed to secure a win at the first time of asking, getting home by half a length despite a couple of jumping errors, but beating some useful sorts in the process.
He reverts back to hurdles here today, but still runs off that mark of 110 and I’m not concerned about his stamina as all his best form has come when turned out quickly in the past. Each of his three career wins have come within three weeks of a previous run and now comes to Ffos Las to attempt to repeat the feat.
Ffos Las has proved to be a happy hunting ground for horses turned back out quickly, as horses running here in handicap contests within a week of their last run have won 28 of 86 races (32.6% SR) generating 57.7pts profit (+67.1% ROI) in the process. Those running here in the 2/1 to 10/1 price bracket have a record of 22/54 (40.7% SR) for 76pts (+140.7% ROI) profit.
Those who run here within a week of a top 3 finish last time out are 22/57 (38.6% SR) for 38.7pts (+67.8% ROI) with the 2/1 to 10/1 parameters proving very profitable, finding 16 winners from 36 (44.4% SR) for 45.9pts (+127.6% ROI).
The figures are improved further if we only consider those runners who have at least had a little rest after their last outing. Those horses running here at Ffos Las 4 to 7 days after their last run have won 24 of 75 races (32% SR) and have picked up level stakes profits of 54.7pts, or 72.9% of stakes, with those in the 2/1 to 10/1 bracket having a 20/47 (42.6% SR) record and corresponding profits of 73.8pts (+157% ROI).
The horses sent here within 4 to 7 days of a top four finish last time out have won 20 of 53 contests (37.7% SR) and the resultant 42.7pts profit equates to 80.5% of stakes invested, with those in the 2/1 to 10/1 zone winning 16 of 35 efforts (45.7% SR) for 51.8pts (+147.9% ROI) profit. With a 6/1 cap, that stat becomes 13/28 (46.4% SR) for 28pts (+100%ROI).
Conditions look set to be ideal for Sedgemoor Express here, as his best performances have been on good ground (3 wins from 8), he has won two of his last four contests around today’s trip and runs off the same as last week’s win. Tom Scudamore takes the ride for the fourth time here, boasting an impressive 131 record on this horse to date and I’d expect another decent show from the partnership.
Tom, himself, is in fine form, having ridden 29 winners from 120 rides in the last two months and 9 from 33 in the last three weeks, including success aboard High Ron on his only ride of the day on Wednesday. He also boasts a 25% strike rate here at Ffos Las in the last three years.
All things considered, the current odds look a little long for a horse in form, whose main rival here (Bedouin Bay) ran at Southwell on Wednesday evening and might just find this a step too far. Thus, the call is a 1pt win bet on Sedgemoor Express at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor and at 9.20pm on Wednesday evening, that was the best on offer.
I’m aware that I’ve got 23.5 hours to race time and the odds might well change. So to keep abreast of any price movements, I strongly advise you to…
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