Chasing Value Race Analysis – Saturday 21 June 2014

Chasing Value

My name is Mike Ashurst, and my speciality is finding value in the big Saturday afternoon handicaps for all codes of racing. Each Friday afternoon I will focus on some of the most valuable and/or competitive races of the weekend and try to find some early value.  I will offer my opinion on the value or otherwise at the top of the market and highlight a few horses that I think might represent some decent early opportunities.

Ascot 16:25 Class 1 Group 1 6f (Good to firm)

Not a handicap, but certainly competitive enough to get stuck into. As I write, Slade Power (7/2) and Aljamaheer (9/2) have obvious chances and deserve to be at the head of the market.  However, this looks competitive and at those prices I’m looking for value elsewhere.  The 3 year olds Due Diligence (7/1) and Astaire (10/1) could both make the most of their weight allowance, and while I’m always wary of younger horses meeting more experienced rivals there could be a little bit of value in their prices.  Gordon Lord Byron has similar form to the favourite, ran well last year despite running keenly so looks a generous price at 9/1 if he can handle the occasion better this time. Completely unexposed to British racing, if American Devil handles the ground then 20/1 looks a very fair each way shout.

Ascot 17:00 Class 2 Handicap 6f (Good to firm)

At the top of the market Ninjago (8/1, open to further improvement) and Seeking Magic (12/1, staying on over 5f last time) look worthy favourites and the prices look fair enough.  Both have strong chances and I would be looking to back either of them if they were to drift in the market.  I would have Rocky Ground as favourite, this horse is on the upgrade and provided he doesn’t bounce then the 12/1 on offer looks good value.  The only worry for Baccarat is if he prefers a bit more cut, but at 14/1 I’m willing to take a chance on that.  Elsewhere, Professor is very reliable, loves the going so I will be backing him each way at 20/1. Dandy Boy doesn’t seem to be the force he was, but at 5lb lower than when he won this race two years ago then in a strongly run race he doesn’t have to be and could make the frame at 20/1.