Stat of the Day, 20th June 2014
Sedgemoor Express was a pretty comfortable winner at Ffos Las on Wednesday evening in a race only marred by a 50% Rule 4 deduction from our advised 9/2 odds.
The deduction was made after four of the original none runners were withdrawn at various stages of the day, including 2 of them less than an hour before race time. All of which meant we were playing at 9/4 BOG, which was still a significant improvement on the 10/11 SP finally returned.
Chase action in Lincolnshire awaits us today and the…
Where Richard Johnson will ride Peter Bowen’s 6/1 BOG rated (PP) course specialist Bookem Danno in this Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 6.5f on good ground.
Peter Bowen’s horses are going really well of late with 9 winners and 9 place from just 31 runs on the last month and long-term profit can be achieved by simply backing all Peter’s runners in chase events.
Since the start of 2010, 102 of his 632 chase entries (16.1% SR) have gone on to win and the resultant 119.64pts profit represents almost 19% of stakes invested. The strike rate in handicap chases improves a little to 16.5% (87 winners from 528) and the ROI jumps up to 26.3% courtesy of 138.93pts returned.
If we apply a simple 12/1 odds cap to those handicap chasers, we have 81 winners from 408 (19.83% SR) for 87.3pts (+21.4% ROI). All of which gives us confidence to back the Bowen chasers blindly.
Peter Bowen also has a good record here at Market Rasen and his record can be broken down as follows:
All races : 57/230 (24.8% SR) for 165.25pts (+71.8% ROI)
Chases only : 29/107 (27.1% SR) for 65.64pts (+60.8% ROI)
All races here since the start of 2010 : 24/97 (24.7% SR) for 67.1pts (+69.1% ROI)
Chases only : 12/44 (27.3% SR) for 19.14pts (+43.5% ROI)
Chases at 8/1 or shorter : 12/30 (28.8% SR) for 33.14pts (+110.5% ROI)
Jockey Richard Johnson is no mug either, with a solidly consistent near-20% strike rate (88/442) over the last six months, form which has rewarded his followers with profits of 111.3pts (+25.2% ROI) since Christmas, of which 32 winners came from 147 chase contests (21.8% SR) producing 66.83pts (+45.4% ROI) profit.
Richard also has a good record when riding for Peter Bowen with 50 winners from just 197 rides and the 25.4% strike rate has produced a modest yield of 11.6% via 22.9pts profit at level stakes. Half the winners (25) have come from he 83 chase events (30.1% SR) with the resultant 24.1pts profit equaling some 29% of stakes invested. Since 2010, Mr Johnson is 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 14pts (+34.1% ROI) on the Bowen string.
The jockey is also well versed at getting round this Market Rasen track, having ridden 20 winners from 96 attempts (20.8% SR) since 2010 and this has given rise to level stakes profits of 16.4pts, (+17.1% ROI) with his record on chasers running at 8/34 (23.5% SR) for 26.7pts (+78.5% ROI)
So, we have a trainer and a jockey both in decent form. We know they work well together and they both have a good record at the track, particularly over today’s chase course, but what about the horse, Bookem Danno?
Well, no qualms here either regarding course, going or trip as far as I can see. His finishes in eight races here at Market Rasen have been 41110141, five wins from 8 and the only bad run coming on soft ground, whilst all five wins have come when there has been the word Good in the official going title, where he is 5 from 10. Although most of his wins have come at shorter trips than this, he was a course and distance winner here just under five weeks ago and is sent out again to see if he can help his trainer land this race for the second year in a row.
Bookem Danno is up in weight for that latest win, but the signs are good for his attempt to win his third race in four, as Peter Bowen often turns out chasers within 6 weeks of a win to good effect. In fact, over the four seasons, Peter has had 32 chasers sent off at an increased OR at odds of 8/1 or shorter within six weeks of a win last time out, suggesting that the market is keen on them.
11 of the 32 (34.4% SR) have gone on to record back-to-back victories, generating 15.2pts (+47.4% ROI) profits in the process.
It’s almost enough to cause you number blindness, but if the stats ring true and the horse continues his progression for a trainer who excels at this time of year (47/187 from May to July from 2011/13), then we should be cashing in on a 1pt win bet on Bookem Danno at 6/1 BOG with PP. Betfair Sportsbook are currently offering the same price, so why not…
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