Stat of the Day, 21st June 2014
Another nice bookie bashing win yesterday as Bookem Danno rallied gamely to win by the best part of three lengths yesterday. He was headed three fences from home and looked one paced and beaten, but he’d wisely saved something for the run in and Richard Johnson squeezed that little bit extra out of him and he pulled clear in the final half furlong on the flat.
We took 6/1 about an 11/4 favourite, which meant we got paid out at 218% of SP, another reminder of the paramount importance of using the BOG bookies.
Time is of the essence this morning (I’m unexpectedly running late!), so let’s cut to the chase and quickly take a look at the…
Where One Boy might look like a bit of an ambitious punt, but I think he’s definitely overpriced at 11/1 BOG with Corals.
His trainer Michael Dods has had 14 winners from his 65 runners in Redcar handicaps since 2010 at odds of 12/1 or shorter. The 21.5% strike rate has produced 35.8pts level stakes profits, an ROI of 55.1% and with over 40% of these runners making the frame an E/W bet looks on the cards.
He calls upon the services of 3lb claimer Connor Beasley here today and in the last three seasons, the Dods yard are 11/56 at odds of 12/1 or shorter when their horse was ridden with a 3lb claim. 11/56 is a decent enough strike rate at 19.64% and the resultant 18.5pts profit are equal to a 33% return on stakes.
Overall, Connor has ridden 23 winners from 176 rides for Michael Dods, a 13.1% strike rate generating 48.5pts profit at an ROI of 27.6%, so it’s a flourishing partnership to keep an eye on.
As for One Boy himself, he has already won on good to firm ground, he’s 3 from 8 at this trip and he’s a course and distance winner. He might not have won in Class 4 company yet, but has competed in much better races (up to Listed class) than this without being disgraced. He’s 1 from 2 here at Redcar, and in a race that doesn’t look too strong on paper, he must have a chance of making the frame.
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