Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2014

On Saturday, I was right about One Boy being too long in the market at 11/1 BOG and as such represented a value bet, considering he was eventually sent off at 15/2.

As for the race itself, he faded inside the final furlong and finished 6th of the 9 runners, pretty much equidistant from the winner (11 lengths) as he was from the last horse home (12 lengths).

Wales is the next port of call and more particularly the…

4.45 Chepstow:

And a 3/1 BOG bet on See The Storm on this horse’s return to Ian Williams’ yard after a spell with Eric Alston.

Ian Williams’ horses are starting to fire again with three winners from his eleven runners in the last week and today he calls upon the services of jockey Charlie Bishop to partner our selection. Charlie’s also in decent nick, riding three winners from his last eleven rides too.

Charlie doesn’t ride for Ian very often, but a win and two runner-up finishes from his four bookings isn’t bad at all. The win came when Charlie rode See The Storm for the first (and only!) previous occasion.

See The Storm didn’t really show his best form in four runs for Eric Alston, before coming back to Ian Williams, but there were signs of a recovery in his last run (10 weeks ago) when he was a staying-on 4th over an inadequately short 5f at Pontefract last time out. He was running off a mark of 67 that day, which is equivalent to his last winning mark and has since been eased by two more pounds, which should now make him very competitive stepping back up in trip to 6f where he has won two of his last three races.

Ian Williams has a good record with horses running off a mark lower than their last win with 25 winners from 114 such horses over the last three and a half years. This 21.9% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 45pts (+39.5% ROI) backing them all blindly.

All 25 winners came from the 83 (30.1% SR) runners priced below 12/1 and the 76pts return represents 91.5% of stakes invested with the record with runners priced at 5/1 or shorter an impressive 16/36 (44.4% SR) for 30pts (+83.3% ROI) profit.

Not only does See The Storm run off a mark two pounds lower than both last time out and his last win, Charlie Bishop gets to take another three pounds off via his claim, making this potentially very well treated here today.

In addition to all the above factors, he’s drawn in stall 2 today, a very successful place to be in the past here at Pontefract.

Since the start of the 2011 season, horses in stalls 2 & 3 have won 91 of 515 (17.7% SR) of races here up to 1m2f, producing 468.5pts (+91% ROI) profit. Broken down further, we see that stall 2 has a 58/261 (22.2% SR) record with level stakes profits of 203pts (+77.8% ROI), with horses priced in the 13/8 to 8/1 bracket winning 40 of 141 (28.4% SR) races for profits of 119.4pts, an ROI of 84.7%.

There’s plenty there to think about and I think we’ve a really good chance of collecting from a 1pt win bet on See The Storm at 3/1 BOG. This price is widely available, but I’m using Coral, because they’ll refund me if we get beaten by a head or less, giving us a little insurance and some added value to the bet. To take your pick of the bookies, simply…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.45 Chepstow

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Here is today’s racecard.