Stat of the Day, 24th June 2014
See The Storm drifted out a point from my advised 3/1 odds on Monday before eventually setting off at 7/2.
He proved to be a more comfortable winner than the official half-length margin of victory suggests. He travelled really well throughout and took the lead late into the final furlong before staying on to win. I got the impression that more was available if needed.
That’s three winners from the last four selections and I’m hoping a trip to Yorkshire will prove beneficial and profitable today as we tackle the…
Where I’ve just backed Sequester at 11/4 BOG with PP (Paddy Power). Ted Durcan rides this 3 yr old filly for David Lanigan here and although both jockey and trainer don’t venture to these parts too often, they’re pretty successful when they do.
David Lanigan has only sent 11 runners here in the past, but 6 winners represents an excellent strike rate of 54.5% and although the resultant 2.91pts profit might look modest, it does still represent a return of 26.5% above stakes invested.
When his runners have been sent off as favourite, the record is 6 from 6 for 7.91 pts (+131.9% ROI), as it is for all runners sent off at 5/1 or shorter.
Of the original 6/11 record, the figures for handicap contests reads as 4 winners from 8 (50% SR) for 2.48pts (+48% ROI) profit.
Ted Durcan for his part of the bargain, has only ridden here 29 times in the last ten years, but has a 24.1% strike rate courtesy of 7 winners. His own personal record here on horses priced at 5/1 or under is an impressive 7 winners from 12, a strike rate of 58.3%.
As for the horse, Sequester, she was fourth last time at Lingfield, beaten by just four lengths. The runner-up, third placed and fifth placed horses from that race have run five times between them since that day a little over six weeks ago and they have registered three wins and a place from those five runs, so I’m hoping the form holds out as our selection takes a drop in class, but steps up in trip by another couple of furlongs.
This leads me to the fact that 3yr olds in flat handicap races stepping up in trip by 2 furlongs on the back of an unplaced run last time out have won 129 of 799 races when sent off at 12/1 or shorter over the last four seasons. 129 from 799 is a healthy 16.2% strike rate and has produced 178.9pts profits from level stakes, a return of 22.4% above stakes invested.
From that large subset of 799 runners, the record here at Beverley is 11 winners from 54 (20.4% SR) for 34.85pts (+64.5% ROI).
And from the original 799 runners, 184 were only beaten by two to five lengths with 37 (20.1%) of these 184 going on to win, generating a very respectable 104.1pts (+56.6% ROI) profit. From which the record here at Beverley is 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 12.48pts (+83.2% ROI).
Sequester looked like she needed further last time out and the step up to 10f is sure to help here as are the excellent Beverley records of both her trainer and jockey.
All things considered, I expect to be going back to the well to collect on a 1pt win bet on Sequester at 11/4 BOG with PP. Other bookies, are of course, available and to see their prices…
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