Double Dutch, 24th June 2014
Despite the crappy racing yesterday, we managed to eke out a winning double, paying 3.59 for a 2 unit stake (4 x 0.5). Not sexy, but we had the second in the second leg at an early 6/1 (returned 7/2), and that’s the whole idea behind Double Dutch…
Monday’s results were as follows:
Minley: won at 5/4 (adv 15/8)
Thataboy: 3rd at Evs (adv 7/4)
King Leon: won at 11/8 (adv 6/4)
Wandering Aengus: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 6/1)
Results to date:
266 winning selections from 953 = 27.91%
85 winning bets in 249 days = 34.14%
P/L : +37.00pts (+7.43% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A double at Newton Abbot tonight, hopefully, though a chance is taken in both legs. In the first, a Class 3 novice chase, the one I like is a bit of a drifter from a stable that knows what it has normally. Specifically, Top Wood from the David Pipe stable. He’s the clear top rated hurdler in the field (130), and won on his chasing debut last time. He likes to bowl along in front which he should be able to do here, and I’m surprised – and a bit worried – the vibes aren’t stronger.
The favourite is Paul Nicholls’ McLlhatton, himself a winner last time, though disqualified. That was in today’s Class 3 grade, and it was his first start over fences. The horse he beat there – Rum and Butter – had won directly before and has won directly since as well, so the form looks solid. He will like the ground, and should stalk Top Wood.
I’m against Hold Court, though his record on top of the ground does bring him into it a bit. That’s the chance I’m taking.
It’s a bigger risk here, as we attempt to land a sixth double in eight days in a competitive little handicap hurdle. But I love the course form of Tzora, who has won twice here in Class 3 handicap hurdles – the same grade as today – both at this trip and both on fast ground. He’s six pounds higher than that last win, but back to optimal conditions for the first time since.
The biggest danger to my eye is fellow top weight, Changing The Guard. Doctor Newland’s charge has a perfect four from four record at this track, all at this distance, and all on fast ground. Now, three of those wins have come in chases, and it’s a hurdle today, but he’s equally effective over the smaller impediments (rated 133 over hurdles, 137 over fences) and can carry big weights.
The favourite, Aalim, has a pound more than he did last time when failing to win, and I think he’s opposable, though he obviously retains a chance to beat us. His cards will likely be played late. At the other end of the pace spectrum, Laudatory would be dangerous if getting loose on the lead.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
McLlhatton / Tzora @ 15.8/1 (11/10 & 15/2 : Boylesports)
McLlhatton / Changing The Guard @ 9.5/1 (11/10 & 4/1: betfred)
Top Wood / Tzora @ 29/1 (11/4 & 7/1 : BetVictor)
Top Wood / Changing The Guard @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1: Betfair Sportsbook)