Stat of the Day, 25th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2014

Sequester failed to keep our good run going at Beverley, succumbing to a five lengths defeat in a fairly close run affair. She didn’t run badly, but hadn’t little to offer late on when an effort was needed, having been kept pretty handy throughout.

It was a decent enough ride from Ted Durcan and perhaps this one might need to drop back slightly in trip to win again. The end result was a fourth place finish as a 3/1 favourite, slightly longer than our original advised odds of 11/4 and a further reminder to use the BOG bookies.

I’m taking a trip to Wiltshire in a bid to get back to winning ways and a Class 3 handicap for 3 yr olds over a mile and a half on what is expected to be good to firm ground for the…

4.20 Salisbury:

Where Andrea Atzeni rides the 5/1 shot Kinshasa, trained by Luca Cumani…

Luca Cumani has a decent record here at Salisbury under certain conditions…
He has saddled up 19 winners from his 93 runners here in the past, but despite a healthy 20.4% strike rate, his horses aren’t profitable to back blindly here.

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However, those running at 6/1 or shorter have won 18 of 56 (32.1% SR) for 13.6pts (+24.3% ROI) profit, so if the money’s down, it’s usually a good sign.

I’m not keen on putting forward short-priced favourites, so if we focus on the 13/8 t0 6/1 price range, we end up with 13 winners from 46 (28.3% SR) for 14.7pts (+31.9% ROI) profit, from which the handicap runners have won 9 of 28 (32.1% SR) for 16.4pts (+58.6% ROI)

Andrea Atzeni also performs well under similar conditions…
Here at Salisbury, since the start of the 2011 season, his record is 6 winners from 23 runners priced in that 13/8 to 6/1 bracket with the 26.1% strike rate producing profits of 6.13pts, a decent return of 26.7%.

Andrea also performs well on Luca’s horses in general…
Up to and including the 2012 season, Andrea was 0/4 on horses trained by Mr Cumani, which is a very small (and fairly irrelevant) sample size.

But in the last season and a half, he has been far more active (and successful!) for the yard with 14 winners from his 82 rides for a strike rate of 17.1% which in turn has generated level stakes profits of 26.3pts or a 32% return on all stakes invested.

Kinshasa is making his handicap debut today…
In the last 5 years, Luca Cumani’s horses have won 32 of 124 (25.8% SR) races when making their handicap debut on turf Level stakes profits of 67pts meant that followers saw a 54% return on their investments.

Incidentally, all 32 winners came from the 113 runners priced at 12/1 or below, which improves the strike rate to 28.3% and the resultant profits and ROI to 78pts and 69% respectively.

Runners on handicap debut sent off at 7/1 or shorter won 26 of 86 races (30.2% SR) for 36.8pts profit (+42.8% ROI).

Kinshasa steps up two furlongs in trip today…
This is something the Cumani team do quite often to good effect. Since 2008, the yard has stepped 112 horses up in trip for their handicap debut with 30 winners (26.8% SR) providing backers with 59.3pts (+52.9% ROI) profit.

As above, all the winners were priced at 12/1 or shorter for a record of 30/102 (29.4% SR) for 69.3pts (+67.9% ROI) with those horses stepping up just 1 or 2 furlongs winning 22 of 73 debuts (30.1% SR) for 41.3pts (+56.5% ROI).

Kinshasa was last seen winning a maiden at Kempton…
Horses running at Salisbury on the back of a win in a Kempton maiden last time out are 5/13 since 2010. It’s not the biggest set of data I’ve ever worked with, but a 38.5% strike rate cannot be ignored completely, especially as it’s profitable to the tune of 4.64pts (+35.7% ROI).

All the winners were priced below 8/1 for a 5/9 (55.6% SR) record yielding 8.64pts (+96% ROI) profit.

Kinshasa was fourth in each of his first two starts (1m and 1m2f) before winning at the third time of asking. That was also over 1m2f at Kempton three weeks ago and he looks the kind of progressive type this yard is known for.

He’s by Pivotal out of Kibara (Sadler’s Well), which suggests stamina and the ability to see out this trip shouldn’t be an issue and the presence of a fairly short favourite should provide us with some value here, if we look in the right places.

He’s as low as 7/2 in places, but better odds are available, notably with BetVictor or PP. I’m going with BetVictor for this one and placing a 1pt win bet on Kinshasa at 5/1 BOG. For a full overview of the state of the market…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.20 Salisbury

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Here is today’s racecard.

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