Double Dutch, 25th June 2014
The wheels fell off in race two yesterday when we could fare no better than third, with 7/1 Tzora. It looks quite competitive today, so lowering our sights is not really an option, but I think I’ve found a pair of races that give us a solid chance of a draw…
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
McLlhatton: won at Evs (adv 11/10)
Top Wood: UR at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Tzora: 3rd at 7/1 (adv 15/2)
Changing The Guard: 4th at 11/4 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
267 winning selections from 957 = 27.9%
85 winning bets in 250 days = 34%
P/L : +35.00pts (+7% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Having posted the 250th Double Dutch yesterday, we move into the second 250 with a trappy race duo, fronted by a five furlong sprint at Carlisle. The two best favoured by conditions seem to be Avon Breeze and Bondi Beach Boy.
The former has never won in five tries on good to firm, but she’s made the frame on four of those runs, so it’s difficult to say she doesn’t act on the surface. She has form at a higher level than this, too, and comes here as the defending champion, having won the race last year. She’s five pounds higher in the handicap than that win, but three of those are offset by George Challoner’s claim.
Bondi Beach Boy has won seven five furlong handicaps, four of them on good to firm. And, though he has only one win at this level, he’s within a pound of his last winning mark. Silvestre de Sousa takes the ride today, and the Beach Boy looks to be coming into form. So that’s the Copacobana beach boy riding the Bondi Beach Boy. Nice!
If we can get a winner in leg one, we’ll be looking at a fillies’ Listed event over ten furlongs for part two of our daily profit mission. Palace is the favourite, and justifiably so. She’ll find this far easier than the Irish Guineas and Epsom Oaks she’s contested on her last two starts. Having run with a degree of credit there, she had previously been a neck second in a Group 3 at Leopardstown, and this is a step down from that.
The trip could be spot on for her and, while she has to prove she acts on quick ground, her breeding – by an Aussie sprinter, out of a Rainbow Quest mare – gives hope on the sire side.
If she should fall short, the likeliest beneficiary is Dermot Weld’s Carla Bianca, a filly thought good enough to run in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes last year, for her owners… Moyglare Stud! She ran a fine four length fourth to Rizeena there, but did take a further three runs to break her maiden, having failed as favourite in the intervening time.
The key to her looks to be the fast ground, though. She was less than a length second on her debut on good to firm, to Derby winner, Australia (!), and then ran that blinder in the Moyglare on the same firmish footing. Her five length maiden win came on, you guessed it, good to firm, will the two flops in between were on Dundalk’s poly and yielding to soft at Navan. Back on her preferred turf, she ought to give Palace most to think about.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Avon Breeze / Palace @ 11.96/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Skybet)
Avon Breeze / Carla Bianca @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Boylesports)
Bondi Beach Boy / Palace @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : totesport)
Bondi Beach Boy / Carla Bianca @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : totesport)