Stat of the Day, 26th June 2014
Kinshasa was pretty impressive in victory on his handicap debut at Salisbury on Wednesday afternoon. Andrea Atzeni kept him in a good position throughout and when he took the lead inside the final furlong, he stuck to the task in hand and stayed on well to win by three parts of a length.
He looked to have plenty in hand and despite a 15% Rule 4 deduction, our early price bet paid out at 17/4, which was more than double his eventual 9/4 (fav) SP. The race commentators suggested there was plenty more to come from this one and irrespective of whether the stats will fit next time around, he’s worth another bet.
We’re currently enjoying one of SotD’s purple patches at present and I’m hopeful of continuing the good run in the…
And another handicap debutant in the form of the 3 yr old filly Felwah, trained by the in-form (9 winners from 23 in the last week alone) William Haggas and ridden by Paul Hanagan.
William Haggas is another trainer who excels with his handicap debutants…
Since 2008, 55 of his 224 (24.6%) handicap debutants have been successful and the 49.5pts profits from them equate to 22.1% of stakes. Since the start of last season those numbers are an impressive 20/60 (33.33%) for 34.1pts (+56.9%).
Of the 224 runners, the record at today’s Class 4 level is 20/65 (30.8%) for 20.1pts (+30.9%) rising to 8/20 (40% SR) for 17.7pts (+88.6%) more recently.
If we apply a simple 8/1 odds cap to the original 224 runner data set, we end up with 51 winners from 152 handicap debutants, a 33.6% strike rate yielding 69.2pts (+45.6% ROI) profit, with more recent times (ie since the start of the 2013 campaign) giving 19 winners from 46 (41.3%) for 39.1pts (85.1% ROI).
Most of our selections fall in the 13/8 to 5/1 odds range and the record of Mr Haggas’s handicap debutants under these parameters is 37 winners from 102 (36.3% SR) for 55pts (+53.9%) profit.
Felwah steps up a class from Class 5 today…
Since the start of the 2008 season, the yard’s record when stepping handicap horses up one class is 60 winners from 208, a 28.9% strike rate producing 106pts profit at a rate of return of 51% of stakes. In the 2012/4 period, these figures are 26/80 (32.5% SR) for 74.6pts (93.3% ROI).
The record at Class 4 level is 30/87 (34.5%) for 57pts (65.5% ROI) improving in the last couple of years to 13/36 (36.1% SR) for 46.1pts (+128.1% ROI).
If, once again, we restrict the odds range for these horses we see that 50 of 151 runners between 13/8 and 9/1 were winners, a 33.1% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 100.8pts, or 66.8% of stakes invested. Since 2012, that figure is 22 winners from 63 (34.9% SR) for 55.5pts (+88% ROI)
William Haggas has a good recent record here at Leicester…
Since the start of the 2010 season, nine of his thirty-three (27.3%) runners at this track have been returned as winners, rewarding his followers with profits of 22.2pts, a healthy 67.2% yield on stakes invested.
The Hanagan/Haggas combination is a potent one…
Since the start of 2011, when Paul Hanagan has been on board a William Haggas-trained runner sent off at 6/1 or shorter, he has been first home on 43 occasions from just 111 rides, a fantastic 38.7% of the time, recording profits of 22.2pts (+20% ROI) in the process.
And what about the filly, herself?
Felwah is lightly raced, with just two outings under her belt. She was 5th of 8 (but only 2.5 lengths off the winner) at Goodwood a month ago, before winning last time out at Lingfield 16 days ago. She hit the front with almost half the race to run and was clear by the furlong pole and coasted to a comfortable 4.5 length victory.
She was 2 lengths behind Palerma on unsuitable soft ground at Goodwood and Palerma also went on to score next time out on better ground.
Her breeding suggests she’ll want further in time, but today could be a good test of where she’s headed. Also of note/interest is the fact that, like Kinshasa yesterday, the previous job jockey has been replaced by a seasoned pro for this ride in handicap class for the first time.
There are lots of similarities behind the selections of both Kinshasa and Felwah, and a similar result would be more than welcome. Therefore, the call is a 1pt win bet on Felwah at 5/2 BOG. This price is quite widely available, but I’ve opted to use SkyBet, as part of my weekly wagering requirement to get their free bets!
You can, of course, use a different firm and all their prices are readily available, when you…
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