Stat of the Day, 27th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th June 2014

Felwah was a fairly comfortable winner in the end on Thursday, drawing three lengths clear of the pack after taking the lead inside the final furlong.

Once the race was won, jockey Paul Hanagan eased off the gas a little which reduced the final winning margin to just over two lengths, but the turn of pace late on to put the race to bed was pretty impressive and you can’t help but think that this is another one with plenty more to offer later.

The icing on the cake came when a volatile betting market eventually returned an 11/4 SP, slightly longer than our advised 5/2 BOG price and much longer than the 6/5 on offer at one point in the afternoon.

June is turning out to be good for us and I’m very hopeful of more success on Friday evening in the…

6.50 Chester:

A race won last year by Franny Norton aboard a Mark Johnston runner and I’m hoping that they repeat that feat again tonight. This year’s entrant is the lightly raced (just 3 starts to date) 3 yr old maiden Alpine Storm, who is currently priced up at 4/1 BOG.

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Mark Johnston’s horses tend to go well here at the Roodee…

Since the start of the 2011 season, 31 of his 190 (16.3% SR) runners here have been successful and the resultant 91.8pts profit is the equivalent of making £4.83 from every tenner wagered. Those horses sent off between evens and 6/1 won 20 of 79 races for 27.3pts (+34.5% ROI) profit.

Franny Norton also has a decent record here…

As can be seen by his 39 winners from 241 rides (16.2% SR) over the four seasons and those winners have generated 112.5pts profits (+46.7% ROI) from level stakes.

As with yesterday, we have another profitable partnership…

Franny Norton has ridden 13 winners from 63 Mark Johnston trained horses here at Chester with that 20.6% strike rate producing levels takes profits of some 76.7pts (+121.8% ROI), including the winner fot his very race last year.

Alpine Storm makes her yard debut today after three runs for Charlie Appleby…

Over the last five seasons, Mark Johnston has a good record with horses coming in from other yards, getting 24 of his 79 newcomers to win first time out. That’s a 30.4% strike rate for 63.5pts (+80.3% ROI) profit with all the winners attracting market support and going off at odds below 9/1, where the record reads 24/58 (41.45% SR) for 84.5pts (+145.6% ROI).

The horse looks out of form (6th of 6 LTO) and now steps up in trip…

That might look a little disconcerting, but (and there’s always a but! 😀 )… Mark Johnston has a knack of taking 3 yr old horses who were unplaced last time out and stepping them up in trip to win a flat handicap. In fact he has tried this approach 265 times in the last six years, resulting in 38 winners (14.3% SR) and 68.2pts (+25.7% ROI)  profit. Once again the bulk of the success came from more fancied horses. So, with an 8/1 odds cap we have 32 winners from 134 runners (23.9% SR) for 63.5pts (+47.4% ROI).

What about Alpine Storm, though?

There’s not a lot to tell form-wise after just three runs, but she showed promise over 7f at Wolverhampton on her second outing, when she was runner-up to Euro Charline who then won again next time out, before going down by just half a length in the group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket.

Alpine Storm has run over 7f (twice) and a mile, but the step up to 1m2f should be more to her liking, as she’s a half-sister to Centennial and Sirens Song who won far better races than this over today’s trip (Group 3 and Listed respectively) with Centennial going on to Group 2 glory over 12 furlongs, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue.

I think Alpine Storm‘s last run was just a bad day at the office and her opening handicap mark of 72 looks lenient and although several seem (on paper, at least!) to have a chance here< I doubt this will take much winning and the usual Johnston improvement should be enough here.

So, the call is a 1pt win bet on Alpine Storm at 4/1 BOG. This price is currently available at both PP and BetVictor and I’ve gone with Paddy Power. You are, of course, free to make your own choice and if you need help finding a price, simply…

…click here for the latest betting on the 6.50 Chester

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Here is today’s racecard.

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