Double Dutch, 27th June 2014
One out of two again yesterday, with the evens favourite in leg two looking very one paced. Unfortunately, our other pick clunked too so there was no return on investment…
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Baraweez: won (DQ’d but first past the post) at 3/1 (adv10/3)
Forst Bastion: 6th at 6/1 (adv 15/2)
Flycatcher: 2nd at Evs (adv 11/8)
Hala Hala: 7th at 12/1 (adv 9/1)
Results to date:
269 winning selections from 965 = 27.88%
85 winning bets in 252 days = 33.73%
P/L : +31.00pts (+6.15% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
The Irish Derby meeting kicks off with a “the bigger the field, the bigger the certainty” type of race. This sixteen runner maiden is full of horses looking to get out of the way of each other en route hopefully nicking a nice handicap mark. That means it will not be nearly as competitive as the numbers imply. At the top of the market, a pair of Coolmore horses – trained by different handlers – dominate proceedings.
David Wachman saddles the once-raced Curlylocks, a daughter of Galileo looking to improve on a five length third of ten to the smart-looking Queen Nefertiti at Leopardstown. She’ll have learned plenty from that and has an experience advantage over most of the rest, including Words.
Aiden O’Brien’s Dansili filly is out of Moonstone, winner of the Irish Oaks in 2008, so she’s stunningly bred. That she’s introduced at this meeting suggests she’s showing a fair amount, and she’ll want another half mile in time.
Selecting a pair of fillies’ maidens for Double Dutch may seem foolish, and indeed time will be the ultimate arbiter on that. But there are good reasons to side in the races I have done, this latter leg being a two horse race from a betting perspective, between Super Quick and Disavow.
Super Quick ran a good two length fifth of ten in a Class 3 maiden at York over six furlongs. She drops in grade, and rises in distance here for a Class 4 seven furlong maiden. It ought to be fine for her on breeding, and she has the best of the public form.
Disavow needed the run badly when only fifth of eight at Hamilton on her debut. She was beaten less than five lengths though, and will be sharper and fitter for that effort. She too steps up in trip, and she too is bred to appreciate the extra furlong. Both are very well fancied by their yards, and it will be a surprise if something else wins.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Curlylocks / Super Quick @ 6.35/1 (5/2 & 11/10 : BetVictor)
Curlylocks / Disavow @ 16.5/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : BetVictor)
Words / Super Quick @ 7.25/1 (11/4 & 6/5 : Betfred)
Words / Disavow @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1 : BetVictor)