Stat of the Day, 28th June 2014
Alpine Storm would have been a cracking E/W bet on Friday evening, as she finished 3rd at 15/2. Unfortunately we’d already gone “all-in” at 4/1 before a deterioration of the weather/going led to a serious drift in price.
The horse really didn’t settle at all and it was testimony to the jockey’s ability that he got her in the placings, but by the time the penny had dropped for her, the front two were long gone.
She did prove that she gets the trip and she’ll be of interest in the future on firmer ground than this good to soft track she just faced. If (and it’s a big if), she can learn to settle quicker, then she could well still win races. perhaps we’ll see her in a hood next time out.
Late night action on the sand awaits us for Saturday’s selection, which runs in the …
Where I’ve found us yet another handicap debutant in the shape of the unexposed Catadupa from the Roger Charlton yard. This filly by Selkirk has hinted at potential in her three starts to date, most notably when fourth behind three subsequent winners at Salisbury over today’s trip.
Trainer Roger Charlton has had a great first half of 2014 on the all-weather track here at Lingfield with five of his ten runners coming home as winners. Three of the five “losers” finished second, giving a place strike rate of some 80%.
Today’s jockey George Baker has ridden five of this year’s ten runners, winning twice and finishing second twice with a 4th place his worst result.
Mr Charlton drops Catadupa down to Class 6 today, a tactic he has used to some effect over the last few years, as 33 of 161 handicap runners dropped in class have gone on to win. 33 from 161 represents a pretty decent 20.5% strike rate and the resulting 101.7pts profit are worth 63.2% of all stakes invested.
Those class droppers sent off at odds of between 2/1 and 14/1 proved most successful with 30 wins from 138 outings (21.7% SR) and 92.6pts profit for an ROI of 67.1%.
It might be of some interest to those of you who like an E/W bet to see that 48% of these runners have made the frame.
Catadupa is also stepping back up in trip to 1m4f today, the same trip as that decent fourth place finish at Salisbury, despite not liking the soft ground.
The Charlton team have a good record with younger unexposed horses dropping in class but stepping up in trip, a sort of strange balancing act I suppose, running further against weaker opposition, perhaps?
In fact, over the last six seasons, when the yard has run their 2 or 3 yr olds with less than 5 handicap runs under their belts at the same class or down one grade but up in trip from their last run, they’ve hit a 21.1% strike rate.
That’s because 23 of 109 such horses have won, generating 77.2pts profit, or 70.8% of stakes invested. With the same 2/1 to 14/1 filter applied, the strike rate remains fairly constant at 21.2% (via a 18/85 record), but the ROI is increased substantially to 105.5%, thanks to level stakes profits of 89.7pts.
Once again, a 40% place strike rate is of interest/note to E/W players.
From the above 18/85 record: 8/29 for 50.23pts was achieved by those dropping in class, whilst those stepping up by 0.5f to 2f won 13 of 69 races for 51.7pts.
All of which gives a small, but ultimately successful group of horses who dropped in class but stepped up in trip by up to two furlongs. Five winners from twenty-two is a very healthy 22.7% record, as is the 153.2% ROI accrued via 33.7pts profit.
Despite there being 14 runners here, it really does look more like quantity over quality and I’m not convinced that this race will take much for our selection to prevail. At the current odds, there’s plenty of scope for a safety-first E/W bet, but I remember the old saying, “Faint heart ne’er won fair lady” from my school days, so my play is a 1pt win bet on Catadupa at 7/1 BOG with Bet365, who are the first to open a book.
Feel free, of course to take the E/W route or to use another bookie. If you decide to go your own way, I recommend that you…
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