Northumberland Plate Trends 2014
All of the below are since 1997.
17/17 ran between eight and sixty days ago
14/17 winners finished in the top five last time out
14/17 ran over two miles or more last time out
13/17 won or were beaten three lengths or less last time out
11/17 had won at the distance (just 3% of non-two mile winners prevailed – 6 from 196)
Four of the ten horses since 1997 to run in a National Hunt race last time won this (+65 points) and another two were placed!
Those satisfying the main trends are Angel Gabrial and Noble Silk.
Those satisfying the main four (i.e. not the ‘won at distance’ trend) are Suegioo (won Chester Vase over 2m3f) and Nearly Caught (2nd to Noble Silk over two miles last time)
The National Hunt last time out pair are Buthelezi and Mawaqeet
Although both are potentially sub-optimally drawn, I’m siding with Noble Silk and Suegioo.
Northumberland Plate value picks:
Noble Silk 16/1 Skybet FIVE places
Suegioo 12/1 Skybet FIVE places
Mawaqeet 33/1 Skybet FIVE places
Buthelezi 40/1 Skybet FIVE places