Stat of the Day, 30th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2014

Well, we weren’t the only people who fancied Catadupa on Saturday and got their fingers burnt.

Our 7/1 shot attracted plenty of support to be sent off as 3/1 favourite before proceeding to disappoint. She was struggling a good 3f from home and eventually finished 12th of the 14 runners a good 34 lengths off the pace.

No time to dwell on that, though, as we’ve one more opportunity to add some profit to what has already been a very good month again here at SotD. We’re signing off for the month in a regular Monday evening location, as we tackle the…

7.30 Windsor:

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And a Class 4 handicap over 10 furlongs and the in-form Perfect Cracker who will be representing the in-form Clive Cox yard.

Clive’s horses are running really well of late and his recent results show 7 winners from 13 in the last fortnight and 5 from 20 in the last seven days. He employs the services of Ryan Tate for this contest and Ryan himself is in decent nick, riding five winners from twenty in the last two weeks.

The Cox/Tate combination has worked well this year with a record of 10 wins from 44 (22.7% SR) producing level stakes profits of 9.5pts (21.6% ROI). All the winners have come in the Evens to 10/1 odds range, where the overall picture is very healthy at 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 20.5pts (+62.1% ROI) profit.

Ryan Tate only has one ride this evening, so you can be sure he’ll putting everything he’s got into it and he also claims 3lbs here, which is both helpful and statistically encouraging, because Clive Cox utilises the jockey claim system very well.

In the 2011-14 period, Clive has used a 3lb claimer on 39 horses priced at 8/1 or shorter in UK flat handicap contests. 12 of the 39 (30.8% SR) have been winners and the resultant 26.95pt profit is the equivalent of a 69.1% return on stakes invested.

Perfect Cracker comes here in good form and is progressing nicely as results of 4231 will show. The most recent outing was a course and distance win here at Windsor three weeks ago when he stayed on well to wear down the re-opposing Red Warrior, getting up late on to win by a neck.

This is also a positive sign to us stat followers, as horses running here at Windsor in Classes 3 to 5 handicaps, priced between 2/1 and 8/1, on the back of a win last time out and are previous course and distance winners have won 17 of 71 races over the last five years. This is a 23.9% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 21.7pts, or 30.6% above stakes.

As things stand Perfect Cracker is now a pound worse off for this rematch with Red Warrior, but the latter had the run of the race last time out, whilst our selection didn’t get the best of passages. We’re looking at 7/2 BOG for our runner which looks better value than the 2/1 price that Red Warrior has dipped to in places and I think that Perfect Cracker might still have some improvement in him and with a clearer run this time, he could well go in again.

All things considered, I don’t think Perfect Cracker should be that much longer than the favourite and as such, I’m placing a 1pt win on him at 7/2 BOG with Coral. The BOG bit is very important as he may well contract in price, as you’ll be able to see, if you just…

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