Double Dutch, 30th June 2014
Matt signed off his latest stint in the DD hot seat with yet another 15/1 double with some similarities in both races.
Both were won by horses advised at 3/1 BOG, backed into 9/4 at the off and both of our other selections were 2/1 favourites who finished third.
This took Matt’s tally to 7 winning doubles in 12 days, so no pressure on my return! 😀
In fairness, the strike rate for this service is pretty constant around the 27 to 28% mark and prior to my break, I was still hitting that figure, but frequently pairing a winner with a runner-up. The margins are fine in this game, but I’m hoping/expecting that my upturn in form at SotD can be transferred here.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Zephuros: won at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
Holland Park: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 11/8)
Danzeno: won at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
Saayerr: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
273 winning selections from 977 = 27.94%
87 winning bets in 254 days = 34.25%
P/L : +45.00pts (+8.86% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
So, it’s once more unto the breach, my friends, as I mark my return to DD action with these for Monday…
Just four go to post here and it should be a good opportunity for us to land a winner. Of the four, I’m instantly avoiding Bayan Kasirga who has been in terrible form since landing back to back wins at the end of last season. Since her return to action, she has failed to even get near the frame in five starts, beating just 4 of the 53 rivals she has faced this year.
Maxie T has ability, but has struggled since a hike in weight since back to back successes early this season and is best left alone until he comes down a few pounds. All of which essentially makes this (to me anyway!) a two-horse race.
My preference is for the 11/8 BOG favourite Ruwasi who has been both progressive and impressive this season, following up a narrow defeat (nose) defeat at Thirsk in a big field with a win last time out at Catterick. Both races were his only efforts over today’s trip and he’s the one to beat for me.
The danger should be Only Orsenfoolsies, who was only beaten by three parts of a length by David O’Meara’s hat-trick completing Saved By The Bell last time out. That looked a better race than this one and was only his second run back after being off the track for 14 months. If the rain comes, that will also help his chances and he’s priced up at 11/4 BOG today, far shorter than his 25/1 odds LTO!
Men Don’t Cry is the standout horse here at 11/8 BOG, despite yet another hike in the weights. He has been running consistently well for the last twelve months now, winning three times and placed a further 8 times from 14 outings. He has won teo of his last three on turf and was a winner over course and distance the last time he came here. Penalised again for a win at Brighton last week, but that shouldn’t stop him seeing off a field of runner who generally have something to prove.
The interesting alternate is Lady Percy, who held on gamely to win by a head at Chepstow four weeks ago. That was not only her first crack at today’s trip, but it was also her first run for 611 days. Today’s jockey was on board for the first time that day and they beat Captain Oats by a head. She should come on for having had a run and it’s of note that Captain Oats won by more than 2 lengths at Bath over this trip a fortnight ago on decent ground. Lady Percy’s current 3/1 BOG odds suggests she’s not completely out of this one.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Ruwasi / Men Don’t Cry @ 4.64/1 (11/8 & 11/8 : generally)
Ruwasi / Lady Percy @ 8.50/1 (11/8 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Only Orsenfoolsies / Men Don’t Cry @ 7.91/1 (11/4 & 11/8 : SkyBet, BetVictor & Ladbrokes)
Only Orsenfoolsies / Lady Percy @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : BetVictor)