Stat of the Day, 1st July 2014
3lb claimer Ryan Tate gave Monday’s selection a Perfect Cracker of a ride if you’ll forgive the pun. He delivered his mount for a finish at just the right time and despite a drift to the left on the run in, he stayed on well to score by a length at an SP of 4/1. This was half a point longer than I’d advised, and much longer than I expected, but still shorter than the 13/2 he hit around 3.30pm, a good four hours before the race.
I’m not sure what led to the afternoon drift in price, but I’m grateful once again to the BOG system for the extra half point taking June’s final tally to 14.58pts from 25 bets, an ROI of 58.3% thanks to a 36% strike rate (9/25).
June was a very good month, but is now consigned to the archives and I’m hopeful of starting July where we ended the last month ie with a winner in the…
It has been a quiet start to the 2014 Flat season for Sir Mark Prescott, who hadn’t had a single runner take to the track until a week ago, but he’s already had a couple of winners and this is the time of year when his yard is at its best.
In handicap contests during he months of June July and August, SMP is certainly a man to follow. 245 winners from 768 runners is a very good 31.9% strike rate and the resultant profits of 143.7pts are very healthy indeed. To achieve an ROI of almost 19% from blindly backing almost 800 runners is quite amazing. Only 20 of those 768 horses actually ran here at Bath, but 11 winners is a 55% win ratio and an ROI of 27.3% has been made via 5.46pts profit from level stakes.
Of the 768 runners in the June/August period, a greater return was made by focusing on the type of horse we tend to pick here at SotD, ie the 5/2 to 8/1 odds range, where the record reads 78/326 (23.9% SR) for 128.9pts (+39.5% ROI) profit.
Those figures do stretch back a while, so it would be a good idea to look at more recent events but without narrowing the number of runners too much. If we look at the last five seasons, we see the yard is still as successful as in the past with 106 winners from 366 runners (29% SR) at this time of year with level stakes profits of 87pts equating to 23.7% of stakes invested.
The record here at Bath is 11/17 (64.7% SR) for 8.46pts (+49.8% ROI) and the figures for horses in the afore-mentioned 5/2 to 8/1 bracket are 33 winners from 151 (21.9% SR) returning 49.5pts profit, a yield of 32.8% above stakes.
I’m telling you all this, because I’m drawn to SMP’s runner in the last race here this evening, Windshield. This horse makes her handicap debut here over the 11.5f trip after three maiden runs over a mile, where she was noticeably outpaced over an inadequate trip. Her breeding suggests she’ll be a decent sort (better than this Class 6 level anyway!) and that she’ll want quite a bit further than a mile.
This is a tactic employed by the Prescott yard to good effect in the past. Over the last five seasons, the team have asked 34 handicap debutants to run at a trip of 3f to 6f longer than their last outing, and 12 (35.3%SR) of them have gone to win, bringing in 32pts (+94% ROI) profit in the process. The record with those sent off at between 5/2 and 8/1 is an incredible 10 wins from 19 (52.6% SR) for 41pts (+215.7% ROI), so keep an eye on the money going down.
Windshield drops down a grade to Class 6 for this race and since 2008, Sir Mark has dropped 145 of his handicappers down a grade and 55 (37.9%) of them were successful. Between them they have amassed a huge 160.3pts profit, which is more than 110% of all stakes invested and from those 145 runners, the record at Bath is 4 from 5 for 5.4pts, whilst the figures for Class 6 races only stand at 29/78 (37.2% SR) for 84.4pts (+108.2% ROI) profit.
Once again, the market tends to be a good judge of these runners, as 53 of the 124 sub-10/1 runners came home as winners with the 42.7% strike rate yielding profits of 124pts on a double-your-money basis. Class 6 horses won 28 of 67 (41.8% SR) races for 66.8pts (99.8% ROI) profit.
There’s not a lot to say about Windshield‘s form, other than i expect her to be far better in time than she has shown so far. She’s by Montjeu, whose offspring stay and another significant factor (to me, anyway!) is the booking of Luke Morris for the ride, after Liam Jones had been in the saddle on this horses’ three previous outings.
Luke is obviously the go-to jockey here and he has a 30% strike rate about the Prescott handicappers and was in the saddle when Sir Mark’s runner Portrait won this race last year.
That was Portrait’s handicap debut, stepped up from a mile to 11.5f and dropped in class, so as well as the barrage of stats above, there is a precedent already in place and I wouldn’t be surprised if the same result was achieved.
Portrait won this race last year at 4/1 and that’s coincidentally the best price currently available to us this time around. The call here is a 1pt win bet on Windshield at 4/1 BOG, I’m on with Paddy Power, but BetVictor are matching those odds, as you’ll see if you…
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