Double Dutch, 1st July 2014
It was nice to finish the month off with a win and it also removed the DD monkey from my own back!
I was a little concerned when our first race became a three-horse affair with the subsequent Rule 4 deduction of 30% making my advised odds almost unworkable. As it was the favourite shortened massively to 2/5 and was duly last home, some 16 lengths behind the winner who paid out at 7/2 after a big drift in the market.
This set us up nicely for race 2 where our 11/8 shot Men Don’t Cry defied top weight to win fairly comfortably, affording us the luxury of a double that paid just shy of 10/1 at BOG prices.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Only Orsenfoolsies: won at 7/2 (adv 77/40 after 30% R4)
Ruwasi: 3rd (of 3!) at 2/5 (adv 77/80 after 30% R4)
Men Don’t Cry: won at 6/5 (adv 11/8)
Lady Percy: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
275 winning selections from 981 = 28.03%
88 winning bets in 255 days = 34.51%
P/L : +48.34pts (+9.48% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
June turned out to be pretty decent for us here at DD, but July presents a whole new series of challenges, starting this evening with the…
Where it’s very hard to dismiss the claims of Team O’Brien and their runner Red Rocks Point. The horse is 2 from 2 so far in his short career, including a C&D win her 9 days ago. Trainer Aidan is in good form (12/31 last week), as is jockey Joseph (9/24 last week). The yard has a 23% strike rate here, rising to 36% with horses priced below 4/1. An opening handicap mark of 102 looks lenient here and I’d expect Red Rocks Point to win at 7/4 BOG (BetVictor).
He won’t have it all his own way and Chance To Dance poses a real threat. This horse carries top weight and is penalised seeking a hat-trick. Ultra consistent from the word go, he has improved with each run. He was third on debut and since then has finishes of 21211 with the two defeats coming by half a length and a short head over 6f and 1m4f. He’s 2 from 2 at today’s trip and also 2/2 on good to form ground. More is needed today, but he looks to have every chance at 9/4 BOG (Bet365/Coral).
There were excuses for Silverrica‘s poor run 2 starts ago at Windsor (trip a little too long, ground too soft, 1st run in 10 months etc), but that outing aside, this 4yr old grey filly has been a model of consistency over the last couple of years, finishing 232222182. She has often been the bridesmaid, but doesn’t tend to get beaten by far.
In that run she has been placed 22221 here at Bath so she certainly likes the place. Second last time out and showing signs of hitting top form, she looks reasonably treated on the same mark as LTO and the return familiar surroundings allied to Richard Hughes jumping ship from Rebecca Romero to ride her means she’s my pick here at a generally available 15/8 BOG.
The defection of Richard Hughes from Rebecca Romero is a big negative for me (no insult intended to James Doyle!) and I’m going to pass her by and go with Henry Candy’s Shilla as my alternate here. The yard is showing signs of a return to form with two winners last week and they have a filly here likely to come on for her last outing. She returned to the track after a break of 7 months to only get beaten by a length at Nottingham in April and runs off the same mark of 70 today.
A win and three places from five runs hints at some ability and she’s 1 from 1 here at Bath, which was over today’s trip on similarly firm ground as she’ll encounter today. If you want to back Shilla, she’s currently priced up at 3/1 BOG in most places.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Red Rocks Point / Silverrica @ 6.91/1 (7/4 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
Red Rocks Point / Shilla @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Chance To Dance / Silverrica @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : Coral)
Chance To Dance / Shilla @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : Bet365)