Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2014
Windshield was beaten into fifth place by the best part of five lengths at Bath on Tuesday evening, meaning a losing start to the new month.
She didn’t run particularly badly, but she never really seemed to travel as well as some of the others and seemed a little unsettled, but did stay on towards the end after being sent off at the same 4/1 odds we’d advised earlier.
Same time, different location for Wednesday’s runner who goes in the…
Where I’ve just taken 5/2 BOG on Gabrial the Terror, a lightly raced 4yr old gelding owned by Marwan Koukash and trained by David Simcock, who comes here on the back of a win at Brighton just 8 days ago.
I’m not sure if the good doctor will be in attendance for this one, or if he’ll be at home counting the winnings from a string of recent good results from his horses. In fact, 8 of his 22 runners in the last fortnight have been winners.
Trainer David Simcock is in decent form too and from a fairly small data set has some impressive numbers behind him. He’s 4/16 in the last week alone and hes’ 7/27 here at Chepstow since 2010.
7/27 is a very respectable 25.9% strike rate and although the resultant 19.7% ROI from the 5.3pts profit is lower than we’d normally aim for from an SotD selection, it’s a good starting point.
From this position, we see that all seven winners came from the 18 runners sent off at odds of between Evens and 7/1 and this 38.9% strike rate has produced 14.3pts for an ROI of 79.5% which I find much more palatable.
If we drill down even further, we see the record in handicap contests her at Chepstow is 5/13 (38.5% SR) for 13.8pts (+106.2% ROI). An admittedly small set of runners, but more than doubling your money can’t be ignored lightly.
Our jockey today is the rising star Oisin Murphy and he also has a good record here at Chepstow, riding five winners from his 13 rides here when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter, as he’s likely to do here.
That 38.5% strike rate mirrors the trainer strike rate in handicaps here and the 7.1pts generated is worth almost 55% of all stakes invested. You can be sure he’ll be doing his level best to put his 3lb claim to good effect here.
David Simcock is very good at placing these 3lb claiming jockeys on his handicappers to make them more competitive and since 2010, this tactic has proved successful on 18 occasions from the 105 times he has attempted it, with a 17.1% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 73.75pts, or a 70.2% return on stakes.
Gabrial The Terror is David’s only runner of the day and it is hoped he’ll be coming home with some prize money to cover the cost of the 370 mile round trip.
In fact the yard has a good record with “solo runners” ie when they only have one runner on the day and that horse runs in a flat handicap within 30 days of a top five finish last time out.
Since 2009, 18 of 51 (35.3%) such Simcock trained horses have won with level stakes profits of 55.8pts generating a yield of almost 100%. (5 /11 for 16.14pts for those horses who won last time out).
All 18 winners came from the 41 runners priced between evens and 9/1, giving the team a 43.9% strike rate and profits of 65.8pts (+160.6% ROI).
Gabrial The Terror was a pretty comfortable winner last time around and the margin of victory could have been much greater than the two lengths actually achieved, had that been desired.
He’s penalised 6lbs for that success, which is pretty fair in my eyes and I wouldn’t have thought that would be enough to stop him going in again. The fact that young Oisin can cut the penalty in half with his claim is an added bonus and I’m hopeful of a swift return to wining ways via a 1pt win bet on Gabrial The Terror at 5/2 BOG.
That bet is with Paddy Power, as they’re offering the best of the three firms to have opened a book so far. For a fuller picture of the market, simply…
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