Double Dutch, 3rd July 2014
Two winners that both drifted in the market, plus a nice Exacta from one race made for a very pleasant tea-time on Wednesday. Hot Spice drifted out to 3/1 before leading Dr Irv home in a 1-2 finish. 2.5 lengths separated them at the finish with the next horse a good 14 lengths further back.
This gave us a decent stake on race 2, where Super Collider wasn’t fancied by the market and was eased out from our 7/2 odds to an SP of 5/1. Yet he just about managed to defy those odds by getting up on the line to win by a nose. The only blot on the day was Tiradia’s disappointing run back in 5th place.
But the overall result of a 23/1 double was very good news indeed.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Hot Spice: won at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Dr Irv: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 15/8)
The Exacta paid 12/1 here.
Super Collider: won at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
Tiradia: u/p at 11/4 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
277 winning selections from 989 = 28.01%
89 winning bets in 257 days = 34.63%
P/L : +56.34pts (+10.96% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday’s action brings us the following opportunities…
Roger Varian boasts a 25% strike rate at this venue (40% this season!) and with a near 20% win ratio over the last fortnight, is getting a fine tune out of his charges. Of his two runners at Yarmouth today, Idder must represent his best chance of success here at 3/1 BOG. He didn’t get the run of the race last time out, but has shown considerable promise in each of his four runs to date.
He was beaten by a couple of lengths whilst staying on at Leicester last time out, 17 days ago and shaped as if today’s extra furlong will suit him better and if the addition of the cheekpieces help here, he could well be the one to follow.
There will, however, be considerable support for the 5/4 favourite Derbyshire, after he won here at Yarmouth three weeks ago over a mile. He ran really well that day, despite it being his first outing for seven months and the extra furlong here shouldn’t pose too many problems with that pipe-opener under his belt. He may well be up 5lbs for that win, but 69 should still be a very workable mark for a horses who will probably end up a good deal better in time.
It’s pretty hard to look beyond Frangipanni for this one. She’s a different horse now in handicap company and comes here with a 2 from 3 record in handicaps. She has won at 6f at Class 6 and also at 7f in a Class 5 last time out and looks well set for a third win in four outings. She won far more comfortably than the official margin of a neck would suggest ten days ago. She carries a 6lb penalty for that win, but I don’t that’s going to be enough to stop her recording a 2/1 BOG (Coral) success here.
I would fancy the main challenge to come from Alzanti, if she’s able to pick up from where she left on in her only previous run. She won well at Kempton on debut over 7f and providing a 7-month break from action doesn’t hinder her, then she looks the best of the rest. She stayed on well to score first time out and you’d expect her to have been well schooled and prepared for a fairly late seasonal reappearance.
The yard has had a couple of winners over the last few days (inc Presto Volante at 4/1 on Wednesday evening) and an opening mark of 78 looks a little on the lenient side here. Alzanti is currently best priced as long as 6/1 BOG with Paddy Power and I might even have a sneaky E/W on her too.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Derbyshire / Frangipanni @ 5.47/1 (5/4 & 15/8 : BoyleSports)
Derbyshire / Alzanti @ 14.75/1 (5/4 & 6/1 : Paddy Power)
Idder / Frangipanni @ 10.50/1 (3/1 & 15/8 : BetVictor & BoyleSports)
Idder / Alzanti @ 27/1 (3/1 & 6/1 : Paddy Power)