Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2014
I wrote Thursday’s piece, before Wednesday’s runner had even gone to post, so the result of Gabrial The Terror’s trip to South Wales in unknown at present, but I’ll update this article later.
Matt and myself are off to Haydock races on Thursday afternoon for a rare day out together, so it’s perhaps fitting that I’m going with one in the opener, a Class 5 handicap over 10 furlongs, shown on your racecards as the…
Where my selection is Ian Williams’ Ferryview Place, who comes here looking for back to back victories after a return to form at Nottingham last time out.
1. Ian Williams has a good record in handicap contests here at Haydock and since 2008 has saddled up 20 winners from 124 runners at a strike rate of just over 16.1%. This, in turn, has generated levels takes profits of 47.4pts or 38.2% of stakes invested.
His record in Class 5 events like todays is also good at 8/37 (21.6% SR) for 41.5pts (+112.% ROI).
From the original 124 runners, 53 were sent off under 8/1, yet 16 of the 20 winners also fell into this odds range. 16/53 is a very healthy 30.2% strike rate and the resulting 41.8pts profit is worth almost 79p on top of every pound wagered.
This, of course, leads us to the following record in Class 5 handicaps here at Haydock with runners priced below 8/1 and although there aren’t many qualifiers, 6 of the 20 (30%) have won and have produced 16.35pts profit (+81.7% ROI) to boot.
2. He steps Ferryview Place up from Class 6 for this encounter and his horses tend to fare pretty well stepping up in class.
Since 2011, his horses have won 19 of 100 races (17.3% SR) when moving up one grade in UK flat handicaps. These winners have returned excellent level stakes profits of 77.2pts for an ROI of 70.2%.
18 of those 19 winners came from the 81 runners priced below 14/1, where the 22.2% strike rate has converted into 67.6pts profit, an ROI of 83.4% to date.
And if we look at the sharper end of the market, we see that those runners in the 9/4 to 7/1 bracket have won 12 of 41 (29.3% SR) for 33pts (+80.5% ROI) so far.
3. Ferryview Place won at Nottingham last time out in a sudden return to form after a string of unplaced results stretching back over 7 races since January 2013. Mr Williams is now trying to take advantage of this by sending him back out just 17 days later.
There is however a precedent and a set of stats to back this up. When written down, it’s a little cumbersome to the eye, so bear with me, but…
Horses running in class 5 races within 30 days of a win last time out at class 6 and running at the same trip or up to 3f longer than that win, have gone on to win again on 17 of 85 (20% SR) occasions, when that previous win came on the back of a run of at least 3 unplaced efforts.
In other words, 3 or more unplaced efforts followed by a win at Class 6. The horse gets turned out again at Class 5 within 30 days and wins again 20% of the time.
The 17 winners have generated 81.2pts profit for an ROI of 95.5% with all 17 runners coming from the 75 runners priced below 16/1. 17 from 75 is a very respectable 22.7% strike rate and the returned profits of 91.2pts are excellent and are worth £12.16 profit for every £10 bet.
This isn’t an easy race to win, but the stats point to this being Ian Williams’ best chance of a winner from his three runners at Haydock, so we’ll take a piece of the action with a 1pt win bet on Ferryview Place at 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power. Only two other firms had priced this up as of 7pm on Wednesday evening, so I’d recommend that you…
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