Double Dutch, 4th July 2014
Another winning/profitable day of sorts, despite no double landed yesterday.
Race 1 didn’t quite go to plan, as the favourite Derbyshire hit a bit of a flat spot when leading and was overhauled with over a furlong to run, but did eventually rally to finish second.
Our preferred option and 3/1 shot Idder, was withdrawn earlier in the day, which meant the doubles were down, but it did afford us the consolation of two singles in race 2, where Alzanti defied her lengthy absence, as I’d hoped she might. I thought she was long at 6/1 and had a nibble at her on an E/W basis, since I didn’t see her failing to make the frame.
As it was, she was a worthy winner at 4/1 SP, staying on well and could be one to watch. Frangipanni, meanwhile, was very disappointing, back in 7th of the 9 runners,more than 20 lengths off the pace.
The overall result meant a modest 3.5pts return from our 2pts stakes, but that’s still a 75% ROI and our third profitable day of the week.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Derbyshire: 2nd at 11/10 (adv 5/4)
Idder: non-runner (adv 3/1)
Alzanti: won at 4/1 (adv 6/1)
Frangipanni: u/p at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
277 winning selections from 989 = 28.01%
89 winning bets in 257 days = 34.63%
P/L : +57.84pts (+11.21% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Here’s how I’m playing Friday…
I think the rest of the field will really have to go some to beat Windhoek here today. Despite not winning any of his nine races, since completing a hat-trick in his first three races, he comes here fit and in form. His last five outings have finished 22223 with two Group 3 and one Listed run in the last three races. This is an easier assignment than of late and as such his current 11/8 BOG (Betfred, Boylesports) odds are probably about right.
Educate is the most likely to prevent Windhoek breaking that series of near misses and he drops back in class from racing in Group company over the winter in Meydan. His last UK outing was his win in the Cambridgeshire, proving that he has undoubted ability. He has won here in the past, has a good record on the going conditions and is 2 from 5 over today’s trip. If he has been freshened up as I think he will have, he could be a big threat here at 7/2 BOG (Coral, Stan James).
I’m Harry, seems to split his time between UK racing and time in the Channel Islands, lucky boy! Either way, he’s in cracking form with finishes of 111211 in his six outings (3 here and 3 in CI). His last three outings here show a hat-trick of wins, at Kempton twice and Nottingham last time out. He’s penalised for that latest win, but is on top of his game and looks set for another bold show at a generally available 5/2 BOG.
He is of course, thoroughly exposed, as are the vast majority of this field, except for Gambol, who poses a real threat to the in-form selection above. He was stepped up to this trip for the first time 10 days on his handicap debut (and only fourth start) and ran well enough to finish third, a couple of lengths off the pace. He was held back that day and stayed on well late on, but there’s ll plenty of pace in this contest today and if he reverts back to his previous prominent running style, could well take this at 5/2 BOG (Betfred)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Windhoek / I’m Harry @ 7.44/1 (5/4 & 11/4 : Bet365)
Windhoek / Gambol @ 7.31/1 (11/8 & 5/2 : Betfred)
Educate / I’m Harry @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Coral & Stan James)
Educate / Gambol @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Coral & Stan James)