Stat of the Day, 4th July 2014
Ferryview Place was, in hindsight, a fantastic E/W bet yesterday at 8/1. Hindsight, however, is a wonderful thing and we’d backed him win only at 4/1.
He ran better than a 4/1 shot and far better than an 8/1 shot, but the eventual winner and 15/8 favourite dictated the race from the front and when Joe Fanning adopts those tactics aboard the super-fit Mark Johnston horses, there’s usually only one outcome.
The margin of our creditable defeat was 3.5 lengths and we’ll aim for one better in this evening’s…
Where track specialist and yesterday’s nemesis Mark Johnston is a man to follow.
1. If you’d put a tenner on each of his runners here at Beverley since 2009, you would now be some £1189.40 better off at Betfair SP, my closest approximation to BOG odds. This would represent a 42.3% return on your stake money courtesy of a 77 winners from 281 runners (27.4% SR) record.
In handicap races only, those figures are 53/193 (27.5% SR) for 111.8pts profit (=57.9% ROI) with a record of 8/27 (29.6% SR) at today’s Class 6 level.
From the original 193 handicappers here at Beverley, 147 were sent off in the evens to 8/1 odds range with 44 (32.6%) of them going on to win generating 105.6pts (+73.6% ROI) profits in the process. Class 6 races provided 7 winners from just 19 (36.8%) runners for excellent returns of 28.9pts, or 152.1% of stakes.
2. There’s also a string set of stats surrounding Mr Johnston’s handicappers when ridden by Franny Norton. Since 2011, this combination has had 44 winners from 165 runners in the same odds bracket as above: a 26.7% strike rate producing profits of 40.8pts (+24.7% ROI).
Their record at Beverley in those conditions is 6 winners from 10 for 19.83pts profit, very good indeed.
Now, I’m well aware that Mark Johnston has five runners here tonight spread across four races and that Franny Norton rides in each of those races fort he trainer, so which to choose?
Well, there’s one more set of stats leading me to his runner Enquiring, a 3yr old in decent form, running on an open age handicap.
3. A long time ago (or so it seems!), Matt told me to look out for 3 yr olds competing in these open age handicaps, as the sliding weight for age allowance especially in races on 12 furlongs or more gives the 3 yr olds a better chance than they would normally have.
Obviously with any angle like this, some trainers are better than others at exploiting this and one such trainer is Mark Johnston himself.
Over the last 6 seasons, Mark has had 260 runners in these contests at trips of between 1m4f and 2m. 61 of the 260 (23.5% SR) 3 yr olds have gone on to win, recording profits of 92.8pts (35.7% ROI) along the way.
At today’s 1m4f trip he has had 32 winners from 133 (24.1% SR) for 59.6pts (+44.8% ROI) and the record in the evens to 8/1 odds range is 28/97 (28.9% SR) for 44.5pts (+45.9% ROI).
From those 97 runners under 8/1 over today’s 1m4f trip…
5/11 for 13.7pts here at Beverley,
4/6 for 6.29pts ridden by Franny Norton (1/1 here at Beverley).
I’ve waited for the market to settle before going to post, as there were doubt about a few runners, but things seem pretty steady now, so the call is a 1pt win bet on Enquiring at 9/2 BOG with Totesport.
Other bookies are, of course, available and you can see their odds when you…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS