Stat of the Day, 5th July 2014
Every man and his dog wanted to back Enquiring on Friday evening and we were all ultimately very disappointed by the way he folded very tamely a furlong from home.
That said, I hope some of you took my later advice and didn’t back it, once the price became ridiculously short.
I’d like to remind you all of my attitude towards this SotD daily service. Yes, I want the horses to win, but they have to also offer some value. I took 9/2 about Enquiring, which I felt was a fair price. At his SP of 5/2 I wouldn’t have been interested.
The records, however, will show a 1pt loss, irrespective of any discussion about odds. I’ve not been too impressed with the performances of my runners so far this month and I aim to set things straight in today’s……
Where I’ve just taken 4/1 BOG about Sir Michael Stoute’s filly Royal Seal, who will be reunited with jockey Ryan Moore this afternoon.
Both the trainer (21.6% SR) and the jockey (21.9% SR) have performed really well here at Sandown over the last few years and both come here in generally good form. Sir Michael’s horses are 6/21 in the last fortnight, whilst Ryan Moore is 6/17 in the last week alone.
Royal Seal was a winner two starts ago, before being raised to Class 2, which she found difficult and now drops back a grade to C3. Over the last four years, Sir Michael is 17 from 46 (37% SR) for 28.5pts (+62% ROI) profit with horses dropping down in class and priced at 6/1 or shorter.
When she won at Yarmouth two starts ago, that was a 7f contest, but her latest saw her run over an inadequate 5f and although she didn’t get the run of the race and was outpaced at times, she stayed on well to get within 2.5 lengths of the winner. She is upped in trip today back to her preferred 7 furlongs and if we look at other 3yr olds stepping up in trip on the back of an unplaced run, we see the following…
126 of 801 (15.7%) 3 yr olds have won handicap races when stepped up by 2 furlongs and priced below 12/1 and who were unplaced last time out. The 126 winners have produced an overall profit of 185.9pts, or 23.2% of stakes.
Just over half of those runners competed at trips of 10f or shorter with 67 of 405 (16.5% SR) proving successful and recording profits of 140pts (+34.6% ROI) in the process.
And finally (from a stats point of view), Ryan Moore takes the ride again today, after being on board when Royal Seal won that maiden at Yarmouth, but he wasn’t in the saddle last time out. Ryan is certainly one of the best around, so there’s no insult intended when I suggest he might get a bit more out of this horse today.
In fact, over the 6 last seasons, when Ryan has ridden a Stoute-trained horse that he didn’t ride last time out, but did ride 2 starts ago, he has 34 times of the 127 occasions he has been reunited with a horse he missed LTO. 34 from 127 is a 26.8% strike rate and has generated 65.4pts (+51.5% ROI) profit.
So, in short without any more numbers (!) we’ve a horse with proven form at the trip ridden by an inform jockey who has ridden her to victory previously. The jockey goes well here, as does the trainer in general and the trainer’s yard is also in decent form.
All of which suggests we’ve a good chance of collecting from a 1pt win bet on Royal Seal at 4/1 BOG. I’ve placed my bet with Bet365, but I know of at least four other firms currently matching this price, as you’ll see for yourself, if you just…
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