Stat of the Day, 7th July 2014
A great winner for us at Sandown just after lunch on Saturday set me up for a nice leisurely weekend by the seaside.
Ryan Moore rode the filly Royal Seal perfectly , as she took on the boys and won pretty cosily in the end. Ryan kept her covered up and in touch and waited until inside the final two furlongs before asking for an effort. She responded quickly and made her way to the head of affairs just past the 1f pole.
Once ahead, she was never getting beaten and kicked on to score by a good couple of lengths going away. The icing on the cake came with a late market drift, she opened up on course at the same 4/1 I’d advised overnight, but in the short space of time from opening show to race time, she had gone out to 13/2.
This meant a whopping 6.5pts profit and yet another reminder to use the BOG bookies. It also puts us in profit for the new month and I’ll be hoping for more of the same from Monday’s…
And a 5/1 BOG bet on Ogbourne Downs, a horse that has already won three times from 10 starts and has been placed in two of his seven defeats to date, giving him decent strike rates for both the win (30%) and the place (50%).
He has won on two of his previous three visits to Windsor, with two wins coming on Good (firmer in places) ground with the loss coming on soft ground. All three races were over today’s course and distance and he now looks for a third C&D win today.
Ogbourne Downs comes here in decent nick and drops down a class from class 3 for this contest after winning at Bath three weeks ago. He’s raised just 2lbs for that win, which should be manageable for him and the ease in quality should also offer encouragement, back on a track/trip he has run well in.
In fact, since 2008 former Windsor C&D winners who returned to the venue on the back of a win (anywhere) last time out have won 23 of 91 Classes 3 to 5 handicaps when sent off at odds of 15/2 or shorter.
This represents a 25.3% strike rate and the 27.3pts level stakes profits are worth a very handy 30% of stakes invested.
If we ignored those runners below 11/4 (ie normal SotD parameters), we end up with 17 winners from 60 (28.3% SR) for 42.1pts profit (+70.2% ROI) and from these 60 runners…
4 from 8 for 15.7pts (+196.2% ROI) this year alone and…
7/25 (28% SR) for 15.8pts (+63.2% ROI) at today’s class 4 level.
Mondays are generally tricky, but I think Ogbourne Downs has an excellent chance here. The above stats make him a contender and a quick look at the pace analysis for the race suggests his hold up tactics could be the way forward, as there are several horses in the race who’ll try to take each other on early doors, which could open the door for a closer like ours.
That, of course, is more of an observation than a stat, but there’s also enough in the numbers to back me up on a 1pt win bet on Ogbourne Downs at 5/1 BOG with Hills. Feel free to shop around for the best price, as Coral are also currently offering 5/1 BOG, but you’ll see for yourself, if you just…
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