Double Dutch, 8th July 2014
Another non-runner yesterday meant that we didn’t quite reach the milestone of the 1,000th DD selection, but despite now sitting on 999, there’s certainly no emergency!
As it was, Monday was yet another good day with our three runners finishing first and second in race one, followed by a Rule 4 affected winner in race 2.
I didn’t think anything would stop Pershing or Koliakhova from winning for us and so it proved. The latter drifted out to 3/1, yet still beat the former home by almost three lengths. Not only was the drift very welcome, so was the 5.8/1 exacta (the forecast paid slightly more).
Sunrise Star’s late withdrawal meant we’d already broke even on the day via the 3/1 single payout from the first race and despite attracting a 25% Rule 4 deduction, we were rewarded with another winner at 6/4, thanks to Telmeyd, who won quite cosily in the end.
The overall result was a 9/1 double and a 3/1 single to keep the scoreboard ticking over nicely.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Koliakhova: won at 3/1 (adv 15/8)
Pershing: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 7/4)
The Exacta paid out at 5.80/1 here
Telmeyd: won at 6/4 (adv 2/1, but 6/4 after deductions)
Sunrise Star: non-runner (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
283 winning selections from 999 = 28.33%
92 winning bets in 260 days = 35.38%
P/L : +68.08pts (+13.04% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We’re in a real purple patch of form, but I can’t advocate any altering of your stakes for these selections. Form is by its very nature, temporary/cyclical and a maintained, disciplined approach needs to be applied. That way, what we bank now will see us through the inevitable rough times and still leave us ahead of the game.
That said, I’m hopeful of more profit from these today …
A quick glance at the bare form might make you wonder why Phase Shift is as short as she is in the market, where the best price is currently 13/8 BOG. The fact of the matter is that she has running on the flat or over the bigger fences of late, but does have an impressive run of form under her belt when hurdling. Her last eight efforts over timber have seen her finish 21213223, suggesting that if she’s happier back over the hurdles, she’ll be there or thereabouts once again today. She’ll not lack for speed between the hurdles after a couple of efforts on the flat, where she ran better than the results would suggest.
I think she has an issue with starting stalls, as she has completely blown the start in both of those flat races and conceded lots of ground early on. However, she showed enough at Doncaster last time out to make enough to finish just over three lengths behind the winner over 1m 6.5f just over three weeks ago. This is a poor looking event that shouldn’t take much winning and she does possess the best hurdling form on show today.
Vedani is also well fancied by the market at 13/8 BOG, as he drops down in class to this level for the first time. His last two efforts over hurdles at today’s minimum trip have seen him finish third at Towcester, beaten by just three parts of a length in mid-May and then he won by ten lengths at the same venue 11 days later, so the trip looks ideal today. When he was beaten at Towcester, Tamarillo Grove was ahead of him in second place and that horse was a winner at Newton Abbot yesterday carrying 5lbs more weight. If the form holds up and Vedani runs as he can, then theres’ no reason why we can’t land another 1-2 here.
Sir Mark Prescott’s late start to the season seems to be gathering momentum and although only one of his nine runners were winners in the last week, the fact that 5 made the frame is a positive sign of a return to form and that revival can continue here with Sagesse. This is a horse who probably should have done better than a third place at Yarmouth 11 days ago, but despite starting well and finishing strongly, she had a poor midsection to her race and it is hoped/expected that the application of blinkers for the first time will do the trick.
The yard do like to contest the middle distance events here at Brighton with a 43.5% strike rate in the 10f to 12f range of races and they’ll be expecting Sagesse to get home today at 7/4 BOG.
There is however, in my opinion, a major fly in the ointment in the shape of Panettone, who makes her fourth career visit to Brighton boasting a record of two wins and a third place, all over today’s course and distance. She has won here on both slow and quick ground and possesses a decent turn of foot, as demonstrated when winning at Windsor last time out. She had the necessary speed to win by a length over a trip 2f shorter than today, but the step back up will suit her, as she’s 2/6 at this distance.
Paddy Aspell rode her for the first time that day and he’s back in the saddle here, hoping to pick up where he left off for a yard (Roger Varian) with a 1-in-3 strike rate here at Brighton (6 winners from 18) in the past. Thier record in handicap events is particularly impressive at 5 wins from 15 for profits of almost 26pts and they’ll be hoping to add a few more points via a win at 11/4 BOG for Panettone today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Vedani / Sagesse @ 6.22/1 (13/8 & 7/4 : Coral)
Vedani / Panettone @ 8.84/1 (13/8 & 11/4 : generally available)
Phase Shift / Sagesse @ 6.22/1 (13/8 & 7/4 : BetVictor, BetFred & Hills)
Phase Shift / Panettone @ 8.84/1 (13/8 & 11/4 : generally available)