Stat of the Day, 8th July 2014
Such was the tightness of the finish at Windsor last night, our selection was beaten by just two lengths, yet ended up 5th of the 7 runners at an SP of 9/2!
But you won’t hear me lamenting a tale of woe, as that gap was as close as our runner had got all race. He was held up for a run and I’ve no issues with that, but when it was time for him to be delivered for a challenge, he simply didn’t have the necessary pace and jockey Steve Drowne worked really hard to get him going to little avail/reward.
We can’t win them all, but I’ll be wanting quick recompense via today’s…
And although this looks like a pretty competitive mares’ race, I think there’s some value to had form the 11/2 BOG currently on offer about Dianne Sayer’s runner Cool Baranca.
Dianne Sayer is one of those “set and forget” type of NH handicap trainers ie back her runners blindly and make a profit without having to delve too deeply into the whys and wherefores.
In the last three and a half years, had you placed a £10 bet on each of her 530 NH handicap runners (no tiny insignificant data set here!), you would have made a £2030 profit at Betfair SP, the closest approximation I have to BOG odds. That’s an excellent 38.3% return on your money and that’s because 73 (13.8%) of the 530 horses were winners.
Of all those runners, 343 were hurdlers and 49 (14.3% SR) of them went on to win, recording level stakes profits of 171.8pts at an ROI of 50.1%.
I appreciate that those figures include all runners and we really should dig further down into the runners to ensure the figures aren’t being skewed by a couple of big-priced winners. So, from the 49/343 hurdlers stat, we arrive at the following…
40/191 (20.9% SR) for 109.5pts (+57.3% ROI) for runners priced between 2/1 and 12/1 and
34/139 (24.5% SR) for 79.3pts (+57.1% ROI) in the 2/1 to 8/1 bracket, showing consistent returns down the line.
Dianne’s daughter Emma takes the ride this evening and has a decent record over the last few year’s on handicap hurdlers trained by her mother. 19 winners from 133 rides is a pretty good strike rate of 14.3% for an amateur jockey and the level stakes profits from those rides amounts to 136.2pts at an ROI of 102.4%. Once again, we get to see that the figures aren’t biased towards a big winner, since 11 of 19 victories came from the 33 rides priced below 8/1. That 1-in-3 record virtually doubled punters’ stakes with profits of 32.9pts (+99.8% ROI).
Emma claims 5lbs tonight and mother Dianne is a dab hand at getting results from jockeys claiming 5lbs in handicap contests. Since 2009, 5lb claimer jockeys have won 23 of 255 times aboard Mrs Sayers horses and whilst a 9% strike rate doesn’t exactly set the world on fire as a stand-alone stat, it doe help to reaffirm the selection. The 9% ratio of winners still generated level stakes profits of 30.7pts, or 12.1% of stakes, but it’s aboard the hurdlers (again!) that these amateur jockeys have made their mark.
When her rider claims 5lb aboard a handicap hurdler, they have a 12.5% strike rate via a 14/112 record that has generated 92.3pts profit at a yield of 82.4% and 11 of those 14 winners were priced between 2/1 & 10/1. It might not seem surprising for such a large chunk of the winners to be at the sharper end of the market, but those 11 winners came from just 47 runners at a strike rate of 23.4%, which is not only excellent, but also responsible for a 99.2% return on stakes via 46.6pts profit.
Incidentally, from that 11/47 stats, Emma Sayer is 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 16.8pts (+70% ROI), good numbers that she’ll hope to improve aboard Cool Baranca tonight. The horse is in good form of late despite not winning any of her 14 races over the last ten months.
She has shown plenty of signs that her time could well be coming again, as finishes of 2223 over the last seven weeks would suggest she’s knocking on the door. She was third at Perth just five days ago and was only beaten by three lengths off the same mark of 105 as she bears today. Emma was on board that day, too but was only in receipt of a 3lb allowance, so in effect, the team are 2lbs better off today and that might just be enough to bring about a return to winning ways, especially if you consider that the horse has previously won off 15lbs higher than today.
I’m not over concerned about her running twice inside a week (5 days to be precise!), Mrs Sayer likes to run her horses again pretty quickly after a decent run and quite often to good effect. In fact, since 2008, with handicap hurdlers priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 odds range who last ran less than 10 days ago, she has had 16 winners from 56 for a strike rate of 28.6%, level stakes profits of 27.3pts and an ROI of 48.8%. Of those 56 runners, 14 of 39 (35.9% SR) finished in the first three home last time out, producing 30.4pts (+78% ROI) profit.
Lots to digest, I know, but I’m convinced that this horse is currently overpriced, so the call is a 1pt win bet on Cool Baranca at 11/2 BOG. I’ve got on with bet365, but BetVictor are also offering the same odds, as will become clear if you just…
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