Double Dutch, 9th July 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 9th July 2014

I suppose after the recent run of form, it was only a matter of time before we hit a day with no winners. We weren’t helped by the late withdrawal of Vedani from race 1. Not only did this decimate the price of Phase Shift, but it removed a real chance of victory for us. Phase Shift, to her credit, gave her usual gutsy performance but was outpaced on the run in and was beaten by two lengths.

Vedani’s withdrawal did, however, offer us the lifeline of two singles 40 minutes later at Brighton, but Sagesse also finished second, being held off by just half a length by another determined Richard Hughes finish. Sagesse had drifted nicely out to 11/4 from our advised 7/4 odds and had she go home, we’d have almost broke even on the day.

As it was, we lost 2pts, but in light of recent results, we just dust ourselves down and go again.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Phase Shift: 2nd at 4/5 (adv 13/8, but 21/20 after R4)
Vedani: non-runner (adv 13/8)
———————————
Sagesse: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 7/4)
Panettone: u/p at 5/2 (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
283 winning selections from 1002 = 28.24%
92 winning bets in 261 days = 35.25%

Stakes: 524.00pts
Returns: 590.08pts

P/L : +66.08pts (+12.61% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

For the first time in a few days, I’ve actually managed to find a few races that would fit the bill for us today. I just hope that these are the right two!

4.10 Yarmouth:

Where there is a lot to like about Genius Boy. He comes here seeking a 4-timer and 5th win in eight races from a career reading 1243111 so far. His trainer has a great record here at Yarmouth, as does jockey Kieren Fallon and the horse is 4/4 on good to firm ground, 2/2 here at Yarmouth (1 over C&D), 2/2 at the trip and 1/1 at this Class. He’s admittedly up in weight again, but the change of jockey is a positive one designed to get a little bit more out of a horse that probably hasn’t quite stopped improving just yet and another good run is expected at 5/2 BOG.

The one he’ll have to beat, in my opinion is Enobled and at 7/4 BOG, the market seems to agree. He was very unlucky last time out when twice denied a run at Sandown in a better race than this. Despite the traffic problems he endured that day, he still ran on well to finish in fourth place, just a length and a half behind Sea Shanty, who himself was subsequently fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot 4 days later. The way Enobled finished at Sandown last time out suggested he’ll enjoy the extra furlong today and this could well be a cracking contest.

*

8.30 Naas:

A rare DD sortie across the Irish Sea is down to me struggling to see who could beat the current 13/8 BOG shot Vector Force, who impressed on his handicap debut at the Curragh last time out. He ran at the Curragh after three very narrow defeats in maidens at 7f and a mile, before dropping back to 7f to win at the fourth attempt at Dundalk in December. He then made that handicap bow at the Curragh 10 days ago and was beaten by less than a length into fifth place in a blanket finish despite not having run for 191 days.

His mark of 85 is unaltered and with natural progression and an expectation that he’ll come on for having had a run, he’s certainly the one to beat. He also didn’t get a clear run that day in a big field where the first 13 of 16 home were only separated by five lengths, so a smaller field should help his passage today.

The main threat is likely to come from Derulo who might just try to make all, as he did last time out when winning here over course and distance a fortnight ago. He stayed on well that day to score by a comfortable 2.5 lengths and it could have been further. The assessor has, of course, had his say and has raised Derulo 6lbs for that win, but his jockey’s claim is increased by 3lbs, effectively halving that penalty and if he gets out and grabs a soft lead as he very well might, then he may be difficult to catch and pass on this quick ground he took a shine last time. Win or not, he looks attractively priced at 7/2 BOG, which would surely have been much shorter but for Vector Force‘s presence.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:

Enobled / Vector Force @ 6.22/1 (7/4 & 13/8 : BetVictor)
Enobled / Derulo @ 10.81/1 (13/8 & 7/2 : Coral & Ladbrokes)
Genius Boy / Vector Force @ 8.19/1 (5/2 & 13/8 : BetVictor, BoyleSports & Stan James)
Genius Boy / Derulo @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : Ladbrokes)