Stat of the Day, 10th July 2014
Martin Harley gave Bella Varenna a dream handicap debut at Lingfield on Wednesday afternoon with a patient and well-timed ride. They tracked the leaders and stayed handily placed before Martin asked the filly to set off for home inside the final furlong.
She duly obliged and quickly opened up a lead and then stayed on well to win a little more comfortably than the official margin of three-quarters of a length might suggest.
As has been the case this week (and quite handily after Matt’s excellent piece on value) I felt that she was overpriced at the 13/2 odds I advised. And, even with a 15p Rule 4 deduction, we drew 5.53pts profit from a horse whose SP was 9/2.
I’ve said it before, but it is worth repeating, that if you can get 123% of SP like we did yesterday, then we will succeed long-term.
Don’t get me wrong, though, I’m also a big fan of short-term profit too 😀 and I’m looking for more of it from Thursday’s…
And a horse that you might think signifies I’ve finally lost the plot.
I’m putting up Moscato at 5/2 BOG, despite his profile looking appalling. This 3yr old hasn’t won a race yet, nor has he been placed. In fact he has finished last of eleven, last of twelve and then 10th of 11 last time out.
Not only has he beaten just rival from 31 to date, he also hasn’t run since 23rd October last year, some 260 days ago and he steps up in trip by 3.5 furlongs for his handicap debut after runs at 8.5f (twice) and a mile last time out. He does however, drop down in class to today’s Class 6 level.
I can now almost hear a collective sigh and the question…“Why the hell are you backing him?”
Well, there are actually several reasons why and I’ll explain all as clearly as I possibly can…
1. His trainer, Sir Mark Prescott, has a 12/23 (52.2% SR) record in handicap contests here at Bath over the last five seasons and level stakes profits of 7.65pts (+33.3% ROI) and today’s jockey Luke Morris has ridden five of those winners from just attempts.
From the 12/23 record, all 12 winners came from the 20 runners priced at 4/1 or shorter and only one of those 20 failed to finish in the first three home.
2. Jockey Luke Morris is 7/13 in Bath handicaps at odds of 4/1 or shorter since the start of 2013.
3. The yard has a record of 24/99 (24.2% SR) for 40.2pts (+40.6% ROI) with handicap debutants since 2009, when priced between 7/4 and 9/1.
4. Of the 99 runners above, 32 were upped in trip by at least 3 furlongs from their last run. 13 of the 32 (40.6% SR) were winners, generating profits of 42.1pts or 131.6% of stakes invested.
5. All 13 of the above winners were from the 29 runners aged 3yrs old, for a strike rate of 44.8% and the 45.1pts profit now represents an ROI of 155.6%
6. Since 2008, the yard’s record with handicappers dropping down a class is 55/147 (37.4% SR) for 158.3pts (+107.7% ROI) profit.
7. From those 147 runners dropped in class, the record here at Bath is 4/6 for 4.4pts and the record at Class 6 level is 29 winners from 80 (36.3% SR) for 82.4pts or 103% of stakes.
8. At Class 6 level dropped from a class 5 race last time out, the yard’s handicap debutants have 13 of 42 races (31% SR) for 34.9pts (83.2% ROI) profit to date.
I realise that there are a load of stats to digest there, but we do have precious little form to work from, as a run of 000 resembles England’s middle order from the Ashes series, but there are many precedents listed as to why Moscato is worthy of at least a second look.
I admit that he’s at the sharper end of where I like to bet for SotD, but I’m hopeful that you’ll be getting a return from a 1pt win bet on Moscato at 5/2 BOG with Paddy Power.
When I first picked the horse out (7.15pm), I thought he was overpriced at 100/30 with Bet365, so I took the bet there and then, but I’ll obviously use 5/2 BOG as the official SotD price in my results.
PP has already cut from 11/4 to 5/2 and the other firms currently offer 9/4 BOG or shorter and I think this one might go below 2/1, so I’d suggest you keep your eyes on the market and…
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Here is today’s racecard.
P.S. Luke Morris was in the saddle when Sir Mark’s runner Portrait won this race last year. And when Portrait made his handicap debut, he was also stepped up from a mile to 11.5f and dropped in class, so as well as the barrage of stats above, there is a precedent already in place and I wouldn’t be surprised if the same result was achieved.