Double Dutch, 10th July 2014
We were a matter of both seconds and inches away from another good day yesterday, but I suppose those are the fine margins we deal with in this fascinating sport we love so much.
Race 1 was a strange affair in a way. Ryan Moore’s mount Enobled (one of our picks) became a non-runner late in the afternoon and Kieren Fallon, the jockey of our second horse, Genius Boy had just been stood down for the rest of the day.
This meant that GB’s price was cut from our advised 5/2 to 6/2 via a 40p Rule 4 deduction and that Ryan Moore took the spare. He did so to good effect, getting Genius Boy home after a bit of a battle with the runner-up and a drift out to 2/1 was most welcome.
All of which meant we headed over to Naas, holding half of a double and two possible singles. This race also proved to be a close encounter, but we got on the wrong side of the decision this time. Vector Force was caught with around 50 yards to run and went down by a head after being heavily backed from our advised 13/8 to a measly 10/11.
Perhaps we all thought he’d not get beat!
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Genius Boy: won at 2/1 (adv 5/2, but 6/4 after R4)
Enobled: non-runner (adv 7/4)
Vector Force: 2nd at 10/11 (adv 13/8)
Derulo: u/p at 10/3 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
284 winning selections from 1005 = 28.26%
92 winning bets in 262 days = 35.11%
P/L : +64.08pts (+12.18% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
There’s a good quality card at Newmarket today, but it look ultra competitive, so we’ll chance our arm elsewhere with these…
Where a slight change in conditions should suit Khatiba at 5/2 BOG. She ran well enough last time out to finish 4th at Goodwood, but she was only just over a length and a half off the winner in a tight finish. Prior to that outing, she had two runs at Kempton, winning one and finishing as runner-up in the other. With just three runs under her belt, she’s by far the least exposed here and steps have been taken to overcome a couple of small flaws highlighted by her career so far.
She has run a little green/distracted in the past and her yard are applying a hood to help prevent a reoccurrence of that and she hasn’t yet proved to be strong enough in a finish in each of her three runs to date, all over 7f. To this end, she’s dropped down to 6f where she could very well be the latest winner at Nottingham for Roger Varian whose horses are 7/18 at this track when priced at 4/1 or shorter.
At 13/2 BOG, Ruby’s Day might look like a bit of a punt and is admittedly a fair bit longer than my recent successful selections, but two factors come into play here. Firstly, I think she’s overpriced and secondly, I think she’ll go off at a price much nearer to where we normally play. She has run in much better company than this and won at Ripon back in April on her seasonal reappearance, when she finished strongly to lead late on over 5f. It looked like she wanted/needed further that day and although she hasn’t reproduced that form in her two runs since at higher marks, I think the step up to 6f will suit her here.
Interestingly, the in-form (6/21 last week) Adam Kirby has been booked to ride this in place of the amateur who had been on board previously and with Ruby’s Day being eased back to that last winning mark, they really could spring a surprise or two today.
The expensive Maftool will undoubtedly win races for Godolphin in the future, but I’m passing him over on his debut in favour of stablemate Super Kid, just as trainer Saeed bin Suroor seems to have done via his jockey bookings. Andrea Atzeni gets the nod ahead of Harry Bentley here on board a horse who caught the eye when finishing well to place third on debut. That was four weeks ago at Nottingham and it took a little while for the penny to drop, but when it did this well-bred (Exceed and Excel!) colt finished like a train and stayed on strongly to go down by just over two lengths.
Sugar Lump finished half a length in front that day and has since gone to win at Salisbury, so the signs are good for Super Kid here at 13/8 BOG for a yard and jockey both in good form of late.
The main threat should come from the filly (so 5lbs better off!) Publilia, who if anything was even more impressive on her debut at Leicester a fortnight ago. Seriously under-rated and overpriced by the market, she almost defied her 25/1 odds to win at the first attempt, but was overhauled very late on to get beaten by just a neck to a horse that had already had the benefit of three starts before that day. She looks like a typical Mark Johnston improver and could well land this at 7/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Khatiba / Super Kid @ 8.19/1 (5/2 & 13/8 : BoyleSports)
Khatiba / Publilia @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : BetFred, BetVictor & Betfair SB)
Ruby’s Day / Super Kid @ 17.75/1 (13/2 & 6/4 : Hills)
Ruby’s Day / Publilia @ 18.25/1 (6/1 & 7/4 : generally)