Double Dutch, 11th July 2014
Double Dutch
Double Dutch, 11th July 2014
Khatiba’s half-length defeat at Nottingham yesterday was the difference between another winning double and the actual 2pt loss we suffered. She was outpaced early on and had to come from the back of the pack to mount her challenge. That’s not an easy thing to do in a 6f race and she narrowly failed.
We did get the winner at Epsom, where despite jockey changes galore, Super Kid did prove to run better of the two Godolphin horses, prevailing by almost two lengths. Ruby’s Day was a further couple of places back down the field on a day where our runners finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th!
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Khatiba: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Ruby’s Day: u/p at 8/1 (adv 13/2)
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Super Kid: won at 5/4 (adv 13/8)
Publilia: 3rd at 5/4 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
285 winning selections from 1009 = 28.25%
93 winning bets in 263 days = 35.36%
Stakes: 528.00pts
Returns: 590.08pts
P/L : +62.08pts (+11.76% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Still avoiding the tricky to call Newmarket card, we’ll go with these…
There will be plenty of people willing Alcaeus to pick up where he left off last season, winning all six of his races and having his mark increased by 37lbs in the process. He has been off the track for 285 days, but he did win on his seasonal debut lat year after an absence of 263 days, so I’d expect him to be well prepared again today. He’s unbeaten on these ground conditions (4/4 on Good/Good to Firm), 3/3 over 13/14 furlongs and 1/1 at this Class 3 level. If fit and ready to pick up where he left off, he could well defy yet another 4lb rise and looks good value at 5/1 BOG, especially if kept close to the head of the pack.
He may, however, struggle to concede 17lbs to Min Alemarat, a Marco Botti trained progressive handicap debutant. The yard is good at getting them to run well on handicap debut and the manner of his romp home at Haydock last time out suggests he’s got plenty in reserve. He won by 7 lengths that day despite easing right down in the final furlong. As a 3yr old in this race, he runs some 15lbs lighter than he would as a 4yr old and looks a major player at 5/2 BOG.
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I’m drawn to the fact that Frankie Dettori comes here this evening for only the 11th time (0/3 in 2004, 2/4 in 2010 and 2/3 this year). A 4/7 record in recent history is excellent and that includes riding today’s mount Fuwairt to victory here at the start of June. He wasn’t disgraced last time out either, finishing 8th of 24 at Ascot when 7.5 lengths away from the winner in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes, after a slow start when he was always playing catch-up.
Fuwairt is sure to come on for that run and should be the winner here at 6/4 BOG, taking a major drop in class with the biggest threat set to come from Accipter, who also makes the big step back down from Listed company. She, too, wasn’t disgraced in finishing 5th of 8 at Newmarket in the Empress Stakes a fortnight ago, when beaten by less than three lengths. She was a rare 2yr old winner for Chris Wall, but her breeding suggests she could well turn out to be quite decent and she was impressive enough when winning on her debut two starts ago.
She defied odds of 33/1 to win easily at Kempton five weeks ago, beating runner-up Panda Spirit by almost four lengths. Panda Spirit turned out again last week and won herself by four lengths, so the omens might be for a win for Accipter here at 9/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Min Alemarat / Fuwairt @ 7.75/1 (5/2 & 6/4 : Coral)
Min Alemarat / Accipter @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : Stan James)
Alcaeus / Fuwairt @ 13.25/1 (5/1 & 11/8 : BetVictor & Hills)
Alcaeus / Accipter @ 18.50/1 (5/1 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
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