Double Dutch, 12th July 2014
Well, we managed to win and lose at the same time yesterday. We go paid put on a “winning” double, but we actually lost money! The problem stems from Min Alemarat being withdrawn at Ascot. Second choice 5/1 shot Alcaeus ran really well and might well have won had he not been bumped on the run in.
He was beaten by just a head and after lengthy deliberations, the stewards decided it hadn’t cost him the race. This left us with a shot at redemption via two singles in the later event at Chepstow and when this happens, we need a 3/1 winner to break even.
As it was, we got the first two home and with the Exacta paying just 3.8/1, it seems many others did too. Our winner was a gambled-on 9/4 BOG shot, meaning a small (0.37pt) loss on the day.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Alcaeus: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 5/1)
Min Alemarat: non-runner (adv 5/2)
Accipter: won at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
Fuwairt: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 6/4)
The Exacta was returned at 3.8/1
Results to date:
286 winning selections from 1012 = 28.26%
94 winning bets in 264 days = 35.61%
P/L : +61.71pts (+11.64% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last selections of the week, so I hope to sign off on a high note with these…
And an interesting Listed contest. Now I don’t often select such lofty races for DD, but this looks (to me, at least!) a classic two-horse race.
Glory Awaits (11/4 BOG) is the best at the weights here, but bare form says he doesn’t win often enough, with just a maiden victory under his belt. It should however be noted that he has been running at Listed/Group level for eight of his 10 defeats since that win.
Any horse good enough to finish second in a 2,000 Guineas warrants respect and he ran far better last time out than the result would suggest on paper. He was 7th (5 lengths) in the Queen Anne at Ascot 25 days ago, when he ran really well until fading late on in a one mile race. This is a step down in trip and class and could well be his best route back to the winners’ enclosure for some time.
Unfortunately for Glory Awaits, bottom weight Mushir looks a handful. This 15/8 favourite has already got one win and one second pace from three Listed events and is by far the least exposed runner in this contest.
He was, admittedly disappointing at Newbury last time out, but a bad run can be forgiven, especially as prior to that, he was only a head behind Shifting Power in another Listed race over today’s trip at Newmarket.
He had dropped in trip at Newbury and the step back up to 7f should see him display more of his true ability than last time.
Justice Well was a winner on debut at Newmarket six weeks ago over today’s 6f trip (Class 4), before stepping up in trip and quite a bit in class to run in the Listed Chesham Stakes at Ascot three weeks ago. He was by no means disgraced that day, finishing 5th of 14 and the drop back in trip and class should help him here.
If Justice Well runs anything like he has done on his two previous outings, then this race is there for the taking and it’s only fair to expect some more progression today. The only blot on the horizons is the fairly skinny 11/8 BOG odds on offer, whilst 2/1 BOG shot Be Bold should be the most likely to chase him home.
Be Bold has been coming to the boil with finishes of 521 so far in his short career. He won easily at Chepstow last time out and there was an eye-catching runner-up finish at Kempton in April, when he was within 3 lengths of Escalating who then won at Class 2 level at Ascot and was considered good enough to run in Listed company at Sandown.
Be Bold looks to be the stable pick of two in this race and his trainer/jockey won this race last year and it seems to be a target of theirs with this one who looks ready to step up in trip.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Mushir / Justice Well @ 5.83/1 (15/8 & 11/8 : BetVictor)
Mushir / Be Bold @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : BetVictor, Coral & Stan James)
Glory Awaits / Justice Well @ 7.91/1 (11/4 & 11/8 : BetVictor & Hills)
Glory Awaits / Be Bold @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : BetVictor)