Stat of the Day, 14th July 2014
As with several of last week’s selections, Almashooqa race a decent race, but found another runner just a bit too good for her. In this case, she failed to reverse the previous form with the favourite Tearless as I’d hoped she would with the latter showing some glimpses of why she holds Group 1 entries.
Our runner was sent off at the same 5/1 odds I’d advised and put up a game effort in finishing second, some two lengths adrift of the winner.
I aim to go one better on Monday evening in the…
Where I’ve just taken 7/2 BOG about Ralph Beckett’s lightly raced Dinneratmidnight, who makes only his third start and his All-Weather debut.
If you’re ever looking for a trainer who has consistently delivered profits over the years, you could do much worse than to consider Ralph Beckett, whose record over the seven years is excellent.
In fact, had you placed a £10 bet on every one of his runners since 2007, you’d now be sitting on a pile of profit, £7517.50 to be precise. It would admittedly, have cost you some £28,450 to generate that amount, but it still represents a 26.4% return on your investment and that’s because 443 (15.6%) of his 2845 runners have been winners.
If we consider just his A/W runners in that period, then the results are even more impressive, albeit from a smaller subset of runners. That record on the A/W currently stands at 152/774 (19.6% SR) for 244.1pts (+31.5% ROI) profit, with figures of 36/210 (17.1% SR) for 95.9pts (+45.7% ROI) here at Lingfield.
Dinneratmidnight is his only runner here today, so by default he becomes the selection. I also mentioned that this was his first run on the A/W after previously running on the turf and there are some interesting (to me, anyway! 😀 ) figures surrounding this switch.
Since 2010, Ralph has given 103 horses a first A/W run after previously being tried on turf. 23 of the 103 (22.3% ROI) won on their A/W debut and the 103pts profit is a 1005 return on stakes, so you’d double your money there.
Of the 103 A/W debutants, there were…
5 winners from 21 here at Lingfield, a 23.8% SR for 88.6pts (+421.8% ROI) and
7 winners from 22 over today’s 6f trip: 31.8% SR for 93.2pts (+423.8% ROI)
This is Dinneratmidnight’s third run to date, he stayed on well to land a Class 5 maiden over today’s 6f trip at Warwick on debut back in April on good ground and although he struggled on his handicap debut at York two months ago, there were several mitigating factors.
He dropped down in trip to 5f (back to 6f today), he had stepped up two classes to Class 3 (back down to C4 today) and he missed the break and had to try to play catch up. It was a strong race anyway with plenty of the runners subsequently running well at even higher grades.
There’s still some scope for progression and a run similar to that shown on debut could be enough to take this one. So, I’m backing Dinneratmidnight at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor, the same price is also available at Ladbrokes, but they are non-BOG until 9.00am on the day of a race.
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Here is today’s racecard.