Double Dutch, 14th July 2014
Saturday went pretty similarly to Friday, in that we had no winning double as such, but still managed a return on the day.
Things had started well enough with a winner and a third place in the Listed race at Chester. Both of my selections drifted in the market and fortunately for us, it was the longer priced horse that won at 4/1. I predicted an interesting race and so it proved with just a length and three necks separating the first six home of the seven runners.
This, of course, meant we’d 2.5pts riding on each selection at Salisbury and possible doubles at 10.88/1 and 14/1, if we could just find the winner. Unfortunately, my strong fancy Justice Well was withdrawn from the action, halving both our chances and our odds on Be Bold, who in turn failed to catch a fairly easy winner.
We did, however, have the consolation prize of a 4/1 single and a 0.5pt profit on the day, which doesn’t sound great, but it’s another 25% returned on the day, an ROI I’d be more than delighted with long-term.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Glory Awaits: won at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
Mushir: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Be Bold: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Justice Well: non-runner (adv 11/8)
Results to date:
287 winning selections from 1015 = 28.28%
95 winning bets in 265 days = 35.85%
P/L : +62.21pts (+11.69% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Monday’s cards look fairly uninspiring as usual, but every race has a winner! We just need to find two of them…
Easily Pleased has been a model of consistency since making his UK debut at this very meeting last year. He was fourth that day over a longer trip than today and off a break of 648 days. Trainer Martin Hill seems to be getting much more out of him than he showed in Ireland and since that UK debut, this horse has finished 41243334 with his win coming over this course and distance back in August.
He’s no stranger to this track, having six previous runs here (341234) and was last seen here four weeks ago for a pipe-opener over hurdles, for which he should come on again today. Trainer Martin Hill generally has a good record with handicappers at the sharper end of the market, especially at this track (7/27 for 25.9pts with runners priced below 8/1) and will look to improve his record with another winner at 5/2 BOG.
The main concern about Easily Pleased is that he still carries 8lbs more than he did when winning here last year and that could open the door for Miss Tenacious, who looks quite attractively priced at 11/4 BOG. She has two wins and two places from five runs here at this track, the ground conditions are ideal for her and she’s in decent nick, having finished second in each of her last two outings and would probably have won last time out over today’s course and distance, had she not gone through the second last fence.
I wouldn’t be surprised if she try to win this race from the front and if allowed a soft lead over her favoured shorter trip on fast ground, Miss Tenacious could prove difficult to catch or pass, silly jumping errors aside, of course!
I’m happy to ignore the fifth place finish of Tears of the Sun at Chester 17 days ago, as she won’t be the last horse to get trapped up against the rail at that tight track. She was cut off and nowhere to go, eventually defeated by the best part of lengths. She drops down in class today and prior to that outing at the Roodee, she had shown both speed and stamina in winning back to back aces, firstly over a mile on the A/W at Southwell and then over a mile and a half on good ground at Brighton at the end of May.
I’m inclined to think that neither the going, nor the trip should hold any fears for her and should this race get a little tactical, she should also be fine, as she’s 211 in races of 7 or fewer runners. Both jockey (Jamie Spencer) and trainer Roger Varian have good records here and look well set for another winner at 5/2 BOG to further improve their figures.
Of her rivals, I’m swayed towards Solidarity at 7/2 BOG, who really shouldn’t lack for stamina having been sired by Dubawi, whose offspring have an excellent record in races of 1m2f and beyond. He’s also a supremely consistent performer at a variety of trips and since finishing 7th on debut over 7f 13 months ago, has finished 13221242 over trips of 8.5f up to today’s 11.5f. He was a winner on his only attempt at this trip and with the other main rivals here being unproven at this longer distance, this sways the vote his way.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Easily Pleased / Tears of the Sun @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Easily Pleased / Solidarity @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor & Hills)
Miss Tenacious / Tears of the Sun @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Miss Tenacious / Solidarity @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : Bet365, BetVictor & Hills)