Stat of the Day, 15th July 2014
Dinneratmidnight gave us a great start to the week with a win at Lingfield on Monday evening. Despite being scrubbed along from a fair way out, the penny suddenly dropped and a nice rhythm was found. He hit the front with a furlong to run and eased himself home by a length.
The icing on the cake came as we grabbed an extra half point above the 3/1 SP, thanks to taking 7/2 overnight. I know, from your emails/messages, that some of you got on at 4/1 in the afternoon, which was brilliant news. If you can constantly beat SP, you really can’t fail to make profits as long as you’re disciplined and patient.
I now look to keep the ball rolling with a trip to the seaside for Tuesday’s…
And by my usual verbose standards, a fairly short and sweet piece about David Elsworth and his 3 yr old filly Swiss Lait, who might look a bit of a punt at 10/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but I feel she’s overpriced and is worth an E/W bet.
David Elsworth is one of the trainers to consistently churn out profits over the last few years in flat handicap races. Since the start of the 2011 season, he has saddled up 32 winners from 226 runners (14.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 63.6pts at an ROI of 28.1%.
If we disregarded the 33 losing runners priced above 16/1 we are left with a record reading 32 from 193 (16.6% SR) for 96.6pts (+50.1% ROI), which are very healthy figures indeed. More reassurance for E/W punters comes via a 38.4% place strike rate.
It’s also interesting to note that from the 32/193 record above, those horses that were running at an OR ranging from 6lbs lower than last time out to no more than 1lb higher, won 22 of 123 (17.9% SR) races with the resultant 98.7pts profit equating to a whopping 80.2% of stakes.
Swiss Lait is one of the lesser exposed runners in this field, with only four previous starts to her name, the best run of which came last time out on her handicap debut. She was beaten by 6.5 lengths that day and finished 4th of 8 runners, but in her defence she did miss the break and conceded at least much ground at the start. She recovered well and made steady progress, staying on well and doing her best work in the latter stages.
She should come on for that run three weeks ago and if she gets away cleaner this time, has more than a reasonable chance at a big price here. She is also eased a couple of pounds in the ratings which is sure to help, as is a drop in class. Basically, the overall race conditions should be much more to her liking and she wouldn’t have to improve too much to make the frame.
The drop in class is also of note/interest here. When David Elsworth has dropped horses in lass over the last four years, he has a 25% strike rate (10 from 40) with those sent off at 12/1 or shorter and these winners have produced level stakes profits of 33.3pts or 83.4% of stakes.
All told, here’s enough there to grab my attention to the extent that I’m happy to stake 0.5pts E/W on Swiss Lait at 10/1 BOG with Paddy Power. I fully expect that price to contract, so please…
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Here is today’s racecard.