Stat of the Day, 16th July 2014
It was a case of close, but not quite close enough for Swiss Lait on Tuesday evening, as she missed out out a place by three parts of a length. Sent off at 8/1, an expected couple of points shorter than my advice, she was very slowly away and was outpaced early on.
She rallied and was driven out from the furlong pole and did all her best work late on, gaining ground on the leaders with every stride. She was, admittedly, never going to catch he winner, who pretty much ran away with it, but had she made a better start, she could easily have made the frame.
It’s a 1pt loss on the day, but possibly another bet for another day. More evening action awaits us on Wednesday with a crack at the…
For a Class 3 handicap over a mile at a venue where trainer Michael Bell has a very good recent record. In fact since 2010, his horses have won 8 of 42 races here for a strike rate of 19% generating 32.3pts (+76.9% ROI) profit. His record in handicap contests is even better at 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 30.9pts (+110.4%)
He comes here in good heart with his string running well (4/15 last week) and brings two horses to run here this evening. Taper Tantrum looks to have a really good chance in the 7.10 race, but I’d expect that one to be really short in the market and that, almost by default, leaves us with George Cinq. I say almost by default, but there are actually some decent stats to back up the selection, other than the trainer’s record here and his recent form.
Firstly, tonight’s jockey is the talented claimer Louis Steward, who is also in good touch at present, having ridden four winners from just nine rides in the last seven days and he has a good record aboard Michael Bell’s horses. The record for the Steward/Bell partnership currently stands at 12 winners from 77 (15.6% SR) with a 6/28 (21.4% SR) record this season producing 12.2pts (+43.6% ROI) profit. In handicaps only, they are 10/68 (14.7% SR) with a 6/25 (24% SR) record this term yielding 15.2pts (+60.8% ROI) profit.
George Cinq is turned out fairly quickly (5 days) after a win over today’s trip at Ascot last Friday, when he stayed on well to score by three-quarters of a length. He step up in class from C4 to C3 today, but that’s too much of a worry either, as Michael Bell’s record when stepping horses up a grade in flat handicaps is 22/90 since 2010 with runners priced below 9/1.
The resultant 24.4% strike rate has so far yielded 37.4pts profit at an ROI of 41.5%.
George Cinq is no stranger to Sandown with a record of 1643 here, all over course and distance with the win coming in one of only two C&D efforts on decent ground. His course and distance win allied to that at Ascot last Friday leads me to this little nugget…
It’s slightly cumbersome in words, but horses with CD next to their name on the racecard, who were winners last time out (anywhere) are actually 16/64 (25% SR) for 51.5pts (+80.4% ROI) in Sandown handicaps since 2010.
From those 64 runners, the ones sent off at odds between 5/2 & 12/1 won 15 of 50 (30% ) for 62.4pts (+124.8% ROI) profit and from those runners, seven from fifteen (46.7% SR) were running within a fortnight of that previous win. the 7/15 produced 32.1pts profit (+213.8% ROI) for good measure.
There’s enough there for me to act on, with trainer/jockey/horse all in form. Louis Steward was indeed on board last Friday and the horse gets to run off the same mark again here. Louis’ claim is 5lbs for this one, but was only 3lbs on Friday, so that could well prove decisive here for my 1pt win bet on George Cinq at 7/2 BOG. That’s with BoyleSports, whilst the next best is 100/30 BOG from Skybet.
However, the best way to keep abreast of the changing prices is to…
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Here is today’s racecard.