Double Dutch, 16th July 2014
Tuesday turned out to be yet another good day for us. We couldn’t quite match the excellent returns of Monday, but a winning double at 11.19/1 with the added bonus of an 8/1 Exacta was more than satisfactory.
We kicked off with a 1-2 finish at Bath where joint favourites Verus Delicia (the subject of my typo!) and Dangerous Age led the field home in a race that proved to be more competitive that it first appeared and one we might have lost had the third placed horse not misbehaved at the start.
This meant we headed to Thirsk with fingers crossed, but the favourite Native Falls disappointed after being backed in from 2/1 to 5/4, but eventually came home 5th of the 6 runners.
Fortunately, I had spotted that Angel Flores was down in both trip and weight and stood a really good chance and so it proved. She hit the front inside the final furlong to win by a length at our advised 11/4, which I still feel was generous.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Verus Delicia: won at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Dangerous Age: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
The exacta paid out at 8/1 here!
Angel Flores: won at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Native Falls: u/p at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
291 winning selections from 1023 = 28.45%
97 winning bets in 267 days = 36.33%
P/L : +77.28pts (+14.42% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Here (slightly later than usual!) are Wednesday’s selections…
Phase Shift was beaten by the reopposing Tender Surprise by two lengths over course and distance here just eight days ago, but Phase Shift is now 10lbs better off and I’d expect her to gain some measure of revenge here. Her jumping was a bit sketchy last time out and it is hoped that the fitting of cheekpieces will help here. I certainly feel that any minor improvement allied to the weight advantage should be enough to see off her victor from last time out and it appears that the market would agree, as they’ve installed her as 7/4 BOG favourite to land this.
However, there is the distinct possibility that Yasir (11/4 BOG) will beat both of them! He returns to hurdling after running pretty well on the flat of late. He has only attempted hurdles on three occasions, but has shown enough to suggest he’ll win races over timber, finishing third on two occasions so far. This is a pretty poor looking contest and his general flat speed (4 wins over 1m4f), allied to the way he seems to have adapted to hurdling could well be enough to see of some weary looking opponents today in a lower quality contest than his previous hurdles races.
I actually backed Cresswell Prince at 4/1 this morning for this race, based on his trainer’s record in these summer bumpers. The defection of short priced favourite Going For Gold does several things to this race. It gives Cresswell Prince a far better chance of winning, but reduces my original bet by 55%! The current best price is now just 6/4 BOG, but it’s one you should expect to collect from this evening. Third on both starts to date and has shown plenty of promise, including over course and distance a fortnight ago.
Equally unexposed after just two runs is my second choice, the 7/4 BOG rated Casey Ryback. Second on debut at Killarney last year, but unable to follow that up at Listowel a fortnight, this horse has now been off the track for 10 months and has been moved over to Tony Carroll’s yard. There’s no guarantees that Tony will work his magic here, but the other three options in this race look tired and very exposed at this level and lack any real form and jockey Josh Hamer is 2 from 4 for Tony Carroll her at Worcester.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Phase Shift / Cresswell Prince @ 5.88/1 (7/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)
Phase Shift / Casey Ryback @ 6.56/1 (7/4 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Yasir/ Cresswell Prince @ 8.38/1 (11/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)
Yasir / Casey Ryback @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4: generally available)