Chasing Value: Saturday 19 July 2014

Chasing Value

My name is Mike Ashurst, and my speciality is finding value in the big Saturday afternoon handicaps for all codes of racing. Each Friday afternoon I will focus on some of the most valuable and/or competitive races of the weekend and try to find some early value.  I will offer my opinion on the value or otherwise at the top of the market and highlight a few horses that I think might represent some decent early opportunities.

Newmarket 13:50 Class 2 Handicap 1m (Good)

No stand out value at the top of the market, the 3 year old Tanseeb looks to have a good chance but needs to step up again to justify favouritism. I prefer fellow 3 year old Music Theory, who produced some good efforts as a 2 year old and can progress further. This one lacks a run but at 8/1 I think this is more than reflected in the price. At a bigger price, Edu Querido is better than the last 3 runs suggest, this is an easier task than he has been facing and the handicapper has given him a chance. 25/1 seems excellent each way value.

Newbury 15:15 Class 1 (Group 3) 6f (Good to Firm)

Those at the head of the market are all showing good, solid form, but Intibaah may prefer it a bit slower and Music Master and Rocky Ground are surely too short at 7/2 and 13/2 respectively. The 3 year old Naadirr is progressing nicely, is bred to enjoy fast going and should go close at 9/1 if recent good efforts haven’t taken their toll. The Dubai form of Ahtoug reads very well, and although this one has mainly been raced over 5f and hasn’t yet produced his best on really fast ground, he shapes as though the extra furlong should suit and at 11/1 is worth taking a chance on the ground.