Stat of the Day, 18th July 2014
Yesterday proved to be a good one for SotD, as Laftah made all to beat the underpriced (IMO!) favourite by half a length and she was pretty comfortable in doing so.
As usual, I’d provided you with a barrage of stats as to why she might run, but the icing on the cake was the pace analysis report on our interactive racecards. They showed me that Laftah was the only real front-runner in the pack, which led me to say…“I wouldn’t be too surprised if Paul Hanagan tries to win this from the front, Laftah is usually quick away, she’s got a better draw (stall 3) then the fav who is stall 7 and if she’s allowed an early lead, could prove tricky to peg back.”
That’s how it proved and she came home a 9/2 winner. An excellent price indeed, but even better for the early birds who got on at my advised 6/1 price.
Running late today (internet was down last night!), so I’ll crack on with my pick for Friday, which runs in the…
Trainer Charlie Appleby has made an excellent start to life as a trainer and although we can’t dig too far back in to history with him, that doesn’t mean we should ignore his record to date. It just means we tread a little more carefully with smaller sample sizes and look for extra layers of confirmation.
His horses seem to be starting to run well again, two of his six horses in the last two days were winners and both were ridden by today’s jockey William Buick, who had three winners from six in the last couple of days (he also rode a winner for John Gosden on Wednesday).
Today the pair team up on two runners: Strategical drops down from Listed Class to be a real contender at 7/4 in the 7.20 race, but the one we’re more interested in runs half an hour earlier, where I’ve backed About Turn at 11/2 BOG.
Charlie Appleby’s record at Newmarket is 22 winners from 97 runners, a 22.7% strike rate generating 25.2pts or 26% profit. In handicap contests, he has had 8 winners from 32 (25% SR) for 15.1pts profit at an ROI of 47.2%.
If we apply a simple odds filter to those runners ie just those running at odds of 5/2 to 10/1, Charlie’s horses have won 15 of 61 (24.6% SR) contests with profits of 31.1pts equating to 50.9% ROI, with the handicappers winning 1-in-3 races (8/24) inside those odds parameters. This has resulted in level stakes profits of 23.1pts, the equivalent of 96.2% of stakes invested.
Today is About Turn’s handicap debut…
The yard has done well so far with placing horses in Class 3 or 4 races for their handicap debuts. 7 of 25 (28% SR) have won to date and have made 7.pts (+31.6% ROI) profit in the process. The optimum odds range for these runners is 9/4 to 8/1, where the record is 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 13.2pts (+88% ROI).
Of those 25 handicap debutants at this level, 13 were aged 3yrs old and 3 (23.1%) of the 13 were winners, generating 7.3pts (+56.1% ROI) profit with a 3/9 record for 11.3pts with the ones in that 9/4 to 8/1 price bracket.
The horse has never run for this trainer before…
3yr old horses making their first start for Charlie Appleby have won 9 of 34 (26.5% SR) races for level stakes profits of 20.7pts, or 61% of stakes, when sent off in the 5/2 to 7/1 range. The longer priced horses are longer for a reason and the shorter priced ones don’t offer us enough value although they do win their fair share of races.
18 of those 34 debutants had either never had a run previously or had just been seen once for a different trainer. 5 of the 18 (27.8% SR) were winners and generated 10.2pts (+56.9% ROI) profit.
About Turn was last seen winning a maiden at Kempton…
Winners of Kempton maidens sent to Newmarket for their next outing have won 9 of 74 (12.2% SR) races in the last 5 years and if you’d backed them all, you’d have made 28.8pts profit, a 38.9% return on your money, but more recently (ie since 2012), the figures are even better with 7 winners from 36 (19.4% SR) generating 41.5pts (+115.4% ROI) profit.
All of the above are, admittedly, smaller sample sizes than I’d rather (and prefer to) use, but when added to each other are difficult to ignore and if you’d read that, you’d wonder why this horse was as long as 11/2 in the market and I can only think it’s because he’s been off the track for a year and two days, but I’m not overconcerned about that.
The one thing you can generally rely on is that the Godolphin horses are ready to run and as he won comfortably on debut without needing a run, there’s no reason to suggest he can’t fire fresh again today. I think he’s currently overpriced, but I might very well be wrong, it does happen (occasionally 😀 )
That said, I’m more than happy to place a 1pt win bet on About Turn and I’ve taken 11/2 BOG with BetVictor and the same price is also on offer with Stan James, as you’ll see if you just…
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Here is today’s racecard.