Double Dutch, 19th July 2014
Double Dutch
Double Dutch, 19th July 2014
Friday started well enough, with Cay Dancer drifting slightly in the market before staying on well to win by three parts of a length. Sea the Bloom weakened late on and finished 5.5 lengths and 4 places further back, but we had the spoils from an 11/4 winner to take to the evening meeting at Pontefract.
Unfortunately that turned out to be a poor race for us and we left empty-handed. Neither of our runners made the places in this 5-horse contest, with 6/4 favourite Elusive Guest particularly disappointing in last place and beaten by 12 lengths. El Beau did slightly better to finish third, but lacked closing speed and went down by just a length.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Cay Dancer: won at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Sea The Bloom: u/p at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
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El Beau: u/p at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Elusive Guest: u/p at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
293 winning selections from 1035 = 28.31%
97 winning bets in 270 days = 35.93%
Stakes: 542.00pts
Returns: 613.28pts
P/L : +71.28pts (+13.15% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last chance of the week and a typically tough Saturday, but we’ll go with these…
Dianne Sayers’ horses are 13/61 (21.3% SR) here at Cartmel over the last six seasons and are profitable to back, whilst jockey Lucy Alexander’s course record is 8 wins from 40 (20% SR). Both trainer and jockey have several entries today, but they only team up with Gold Chain, who will hope to extend the jockey/trainer record to 3/3 here at this track.
Gold Chain comes here fit and in good form after winning on the flat (1m5f at Ayr) 12 days ago and last ran over hurdles towards the end of May. That was a win over course and distance here at Cartmel under Lucy Alexander and with a mark 2lbs lower than that run, has to be considered seriously at a decent price of 3/1 BOG.
The main obstacle in her way is expected to be the current 7/4 BOG favourite and 5-time flat winner Poetic Verse. A consistent performer on the flat and unexposed (just 3 starts so far) over hurdles, more is expected of her on her handicap bow today. She has already been considered good enough to start a Listed race over hurdles, where she was far from disgraced in finishing third behind subsequent Irish Grade 3 winner Gitane du Berlais on soft ground at Aintree back in December.
All her better performances have come on better ground and even if the heavens do open today (as they might) we should be getting better than soft here, which should suit her better than all three of her previous hurdle race and she’s rated 5lbs better than Gold Chain on the flat and has competed in better hurdles races than the former.
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Tee It Up Tommo should be the one to beat here at 6/4 BOG. He’s 5/12 on the All-Weather, he’s 4/6 here at Lingfield and 4/5 over course and distance. He might well have been the last home of seven at Kempton, but he has rested well since then and drops two classes for this race, back over his favoured conditions.
Inkerman is seen as the biggest threat, despite still being a maiden after 9 races, but this is only his third crack at the A/W, having made the frame on both previous attempts. He’s unexposed at this trip, takes a drop in class and perhaps most tellingly, is now partnered by Richard Hughes for the first time. All of which could well be good enough for him to break his duck at 7/4 BOG
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Poetic Verse / Tee It Up Tommo @ 5.88/1 (7/4 & 6/4 : Bet365, BetVictor & Stan James)
Poetic Verse / Inkerman @ 6.56/1 (7/4 & 7/4 : Bet365, BetVictor & Stan James)
Gold Chain / Tee It Up Tommo @ 9/1 (3/1 & 6/4 : Paddy Power, BetFred & Betfair Sports)
Gold Chain / Inkerman @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : generally)
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