Stat of the Day, 19th July 2014
We got no kind of run from About Turn yesterday, who was strangely disappointing at the back of field, so much so that jockey William Buick threw the towel in with one furlong of the seven left to run. He eased the horse down and trotted him home.
I haven’t heard anything about the run, I just hope it was a bad day at the office and that his long layoff affected him. The only bright spot came with us taking 11/2 about a horse sent off at 4/1.
Last one of the week and I’m hoping to have the winner of Saturday’s…
Where Border Bandit is currently an 11/4 BOG chance to defy a 6lb penalty in his quest to maintain his excellent run of form this season, which has seen him win three times and place once from five runs.
To date he has won five times from ten in and around this 1m trip and has finished as runner-up on three other occasions. His record here at Ripon reads 211, in which he was beaten by 2.5 lengths over 1m2f and he has two wins over course and distance: the most recent of which came four weeks and he was a winner again at Beverley as recently as Tuesday of this week. He’s up in weight, but conditions look ideal for him.
His trainer Tracey Waggott has a 6/30 record here at Ripon over the last three years with that 20% strike rate generating 33.85pts (+112.8% ROI) profit in the process and from those runners, 12 were priced between 6/4 & 11/1 in handicap races at this track. 5 of the 12 (41.7% SR) were winners and the resultant 24.52pts profit is equal to £2.04 profit for every pound wagered.
Also in his favour here is the fact that since the start of the 2011 season there is an 11/40 (27.5% SR) record for horses priced at 11/1 or shorter, running in handicap races at Ripon at Class 2 to 5 level if they are former course and distance winners who also won last time out. These 11 winners have helped raise 25.6pts profit, or 64% of stakes.
And in the last three seasons, horses who won within the last five days had a good record when the following criteria were met: same class as LTO / trip within 0.5 f as LTO / OR no more than 7lbs higher than LTO.
188 horses have met that criteria in the last three seasons and with 73 of them winning, a strike rate of 38.8% has been achieved, enabling followers of this particular microsystem to enjoy level stakes profits of 69.7pts at an ROI of 37.1%.
The optimum odds range for these runners is to concentrate on the horses priced below 6/1, where 41.1% (65/158) have been winners, generating 66.8pts profit for an ROI of 42.3%.
Border Bandit is clearly a horse in form, he loves the conditions here at Ripon and he’s got his regular jockey on board. His trainer has a decent record at the track and this horse probably represents her best chance of a victory today.
I’m backing Border Bandit with a 1pt win bet at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, whilst BetVictor currently offer the same odds. I should point out that he’s already as low as 2/1 in places which suggests he might shorten later. To ensure you get the best price available, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS